Race Shapes

[SilkySullivan]

Why aren\'t Race Shapes provided with Thoroquick purchases as they are for Sheets purchases?

[TGJB]

Because the full sheets are the high end product with all the data bells and whistles. That\'s also why the TQ\'s can be put in the simulcast book and bought at a discounted price, and the full sheets can\'t.

By the way, while the horse I liked didn\'t run a step in the ROTW, the Race Shapes came out looking pretty good.

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

This week can you botch the race shape and come up with the winner.......

Sorry, couldn\'t resist.  (and yeah, I know, my last 15 picks on this board have gone down the toilet, so I shouldn\'t throw stones..........)

Jim

[miff]

\"By the way, while the horse I liked didn\'t run a step in the ROTW, the Race Shapes came out looking pretty good\"


....you must be kidding. Anytime you want to use race shape to identify the \"speed\" of the race, let me know, we can bet whatever you\'d like.


Mike

[SilkySullivan]

JB,  I buy them on line from you.  Price is the same for both products.

[TGJB]

If you buy them individually that is true, but you can get the TQ\'s as part of the simulcast books and get a lot of bang for your buck. You can get the RS as part of the package too, for $5 each. The Order Online page has details.

[TGJB]

Miff-- Well first of all, if you want to sit down and do that for 9 races a day at 20 tracks, and do every horse, we can talk about selling your opinions on \"the speed\". Until then, our computer analysis of PAST fractions (which we explain are exactly that, and that what happens today is at the mercy of race strategy), are doing very nicely.

In the meantime-- the point you made, if I got it right (and for all I know I didn\'t), was that the Zito horse would easily make the lead and clear in the Iselin, and that the Race Shape, which showed otherwise, was wrong. In fact, it was close to exactly right-- one of the speeds scratched, the Zito horse did not make the lead but was lapped on the leader in second, with the other speed lapped on him.

[miff]

JB,

Never said the Zito horse would get the lead but he CERTAINLY figured to be on/near the lead with Bravo up no less. On all credible pace data(CJ/Pace Advantage,Moss/DRF,Bris and DRF raw,none had the Zito horse 4th fastest(most had him 1st or tied for first and not with the winner)Maybe the ground and weight thing you use is skewing the figs.

My offer stands, I\'ll use raw DRF and you can use your race shape.

Mike

[TGJB]

SKEWING? One of the four speeds scratched, we had the other three close, and they were lapped on around the turn. (By the way-- you need to look at how small the differentials are sometimes, nobody is claiming to be accurate within a neck. And in the case of the Iselin, the one we showed with the most speed was outside the others on the turn, and probably ran as fast a quarter). The other data, if I understand it, had Coal Man clear. Which data was (ahem) skewed up?

In situations where you have a strong opinion (like you did here) that the RS is wrong, let us know in advance. Sometimes it is, because of issues with unusual distances that we still have to debug. But assuming there is nothing unusual, we will come out okay. I sat at Del Mar and had a similar conversation with the top pro player, who had the same doubts. In the two races following the conversation (the only ones we tracked) I was able to tell him not only who would be on the lead, but the three that would make up the second flight. Nailed it both times.

AGAIN-- what we are tracking here are adjusted PAST fractions, and for the visual part, using an average. An average can always be skewed by one of the three races we use. But the RS combined with common sense is the best way to get an idea of the shape of the race I\'ve ever seen or heard of.