Question for the Experts

[sheba87]

Looking at the sheet for Man Among Men, he hit a new top in his first start as a 3 year old, running a 3 in the Sham.

He will have the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby before the Derby.

What would be the best scenario as far as development in those two races to peak in Kentucky?

If he ran another 3 and then a 1 would that be better then a 2 and a 1?

I was wondering what people think that have far more experience then I do at this.

[TGJB]

This is an interesting question. I played him in the last future book, and I was hoping he would not run again until the SA Derby-- I could not think of a single number in March I would prefer to see more than the time off.

 I guess you might be better off if he doesn\'t make a move of two points or more in his next start, but War Emblem made his jump to a 1 about this time last year, and he held up okay. Three year olds are getting much better, and are better able to stand the stress of big efforts (at least for a while) than before.

For me, this number needs to be at least a repeat, and his next either a forward move (if he pairs up now) or at least a pair up if he goes forward now. Few horses have won the Derby after a backward move.