Dec. 26 FG Race 6

[dodie]

In the interest of sparking some discussion of state bred MSW\'s at FG, which I know are at the top of all of our lists of the races we can\'t wait to bet Saturday . . .

The Analysis says

6th More maiden 2 yr old fillies. Libbies Mission returned w/a race that likely
contends today. Second after layoff is a good trainer move. Win #11 at 6-1 or
more, box w/#4 Island Stream, #6 La Raska, #12 Malibu Beauty. B

On the important thing, the numbers, the analysis is dead on.  Further, I assume that the analyst has looked at the ML and determined that Libbie is value.  I don\'t look at the ML before I\'m done sheet handicapping because it just colors my analysis too much.  There\'s nothing better than analyzing a race and finding two horses you love at 5/2 or so and they are 8/1 on the ML, plus the horse you think will B or is too slow is the 2/1 ML fave . . .
What I disagree with on Libbie is that 2nd LO is a good tnr move.  Bnkston is 1 for 15 with the move, 7%.  Granted, he\'s 0 for 33 off 90 day layoffs, but  . . .

Again, I haven\'t looked at the ML, but I assume La Raska will be a logical fave, given #\'s and the Bridge-Assmsn connection.  But horses such as Malubu Beauty, Cnscious Cntct, PoochieWchie, and Beynd expct are more interesting to me at prices.  
My betting line is more:
La Raska - 3/1
Mlibu Bty - 4/1
PchieWchie - 5/1
Libbie\'s Msn - 6/1 (I know, same as analysis)
Cnscious Cntct - 6/1
Island Stream - 12/1
Beynd Expct - 12/1

Any thoughts?

[TGAB]

Julian did the analysis and I think what he\'s referring to is the trainer TG-Figure Based Profile 2nd off the layoff. In this category, runs-based this trainer is 1 of 15 in wins and 5 of 15 in-the-money but figure-based he shows 2 of 8 new tops and 3 of 8 paired top which means 5 of 8 have paired top efforts or run new tops in this spot which is pretty good. That bit of information qualifies as something we know that people reading the form won\'t pick up on. Now granted, handicapper and trainer (connections) alike, both of us haven\'t really gotten paid for this demonstrated prowess, the performance hasn\'t been there (you can run new tops and finish 4th) but that\'s why the horse is longer in the morning line than others with the same top.

[dodie]

Excellent point, Allan.  I\'m going to start training myself to look on the right side of the trainer category.  That\'s where the edge is.  That said, 8 is a small sample, but so is 15.  The important thing is shades the decision twds libbies, esp at the right price.