ROTW

[nyc1347]

Lets run em doooooooooown:


1-  General Quarters -  has always bounced off a top effort 4+ points so i will have to say the same for today.

2 - Did nothing but go forward last year and then bounced off the walls in the derby..  ran an 8 telling me that the 17 was a true bounce and is running over a couple points off a top effort now with the 4.  Should run well today second off that huge layoff and im expecting a 1-2 effort here with no problems.

3 -  Secret Getaway -   never wins.. needed a neg 1 last year to do so and even taking an average number of 2-4 and 5-2 ML  u can have him!

4 - Coragil Cat -   has showns time and time again throughout his racing career to continue to forge forward and then get knocked back by a top effort.  last couple were not top efforts so i would definitely think that it moves forward again on the way to that 1 effort.  A def. use for me

5 - Fundy -  to slow for my taste and last race was the fastest.  that wont do here

6 - Tend -  has shown to need months of rest after running a 1 to get back to a top effort.   also has shown to run better going shorter distances.  a use for me but underneath.

7 - Good and Lucky -   In nice form and in line with all efforts..  8-5 though and should lose some ground compared to others.

overall:  FF is my pick.. I think Fresian Fire will run a top effort here.  3-1 is good value and think that FF could be used on top with CC, Tend and G&L for trifecta wagering and offer great value especially in a boxed type wager if CC runs

[nyc1347]

just wanted to mention that my analysis for this race was based on an opinion as a whole for the race.  i do show wagers for $500-1500 a race and usually only do a race a day so dont critique me for exotic analysis ever cause i personally dont wager on those unless theres a pick 4 carryover, etc..  the point is that a race like this my $500 made me an easy $100. i do knitpick like crazy lol but it all adds up for me...theres no right or wrong way to make or lose money in this game.  i also did this wager with a %25 chance that the favorite would be off the board and a %75 FF hit the board. I only got %20 but if the #7 was off i probbaly wouldve gotten %50+ even though FF was betting favorite. %20 is garbage but i was up money and i guess thats all that counts right now in hinesight. i also did my minimum wager with the intent of getting more if the favorite did not hit the board.    anyway just wanted to speak my peace and you will see similar opinions in the future and look to contributing to the forum as much as i can.  thanks!

[bellsbendboy]

With all due respect NYC I did not find much in either of your posts, this topic, that held water.  You mention that Coragil Cat, a hopeless sixty to one shot in a six horse field, is a must use for you, then explain you just bet to show.  You cite percentages for your horses chances to hit the board but do not offer evidence of what those horses will pay............ a simple calculation.

My real issue is your blanket statement that there is no right or wrong way to make/lose money.

Personally, I am a five decade player with passion, patience and a terrific plan of attack.  I have quality data and the ability/experience to process such. Yet while showing a solid profit seven of the last eight years, I can assure you that the better players, partnered with the onerous take will weed out the weak and at least on occassion make solid cappers look silly.  BBB

[nyc1347]

Bells...

my analysis was based on the raw race itself and not at post time.. if CC ran you would have not posted this.  

im simply stating that FF thru my analysis had the best shot to win along with the best value.  every other analysis (with my exotic picks) was just to contribute to the site. i will not do again unless there is a rare pick 4 carryover, etc..

there is no a right or wrong way to approach a race for profit prior to a race..one may do a show, or an exact, or pick 6 BUT, AFTER your wager, your either going to win (%100) or lose (%0)...   in this specific race if you did a place wager on the 3-1 ML or the 6-1 ML you got the SAME price but were a winner for that wager at $3.80.. there was a HUGE edge to wager FF.   i could name other wagers but it doesnt matter... i cant speak for anyone and MY specific approach to this race with the W-P-S pool was correct