Lookin at Lucky

[analizethis]

Just another comment on pedigree. I am also concerned about Curvee\'s offspring\'s ability to compete at 1 1/4 miles but I keep thinking of 2009 and Musket Man who was very useful in the entire TC when I kept doubting him because he had Yonaguska on top.

I think you need to examine the package and NP has shown the toughness to be right there in every one of his races and although LAL will be the deserving favorite on May 1 NP will offer value underneath of exotic tickets and as a backup on multi race tickets.

Bob

[miff]

Not too concerned about any horses distance breeding as quite a few have been outrunning it in recent years.

NP has a nice run but has shortened late in his last two races, so I wonder about the derby distance for him.


Mike

[Lost Cause]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not too concerned about any horses distance
> breeding as quite a few have been outrunning it in
> recent years.
>
> NP has a nice run but has shortened late in his
> last two races, so I wonder about the derby
> distance for him.
>
>
> Mike

I feel the same way..I used to worry about breeding but not so much the past few years, I focus on the horse..NP always seems to shorten stride late, which is why I think he\'s a miler, although it could be that he\'s just getting run down by a good horse late..
Same feeling I get with Quality Road at 1 1/4

[bellsbendboy]

Cuvee, who i believe was sent to Turkey of all places, is a total sprinter.  His sire is Carson City and his damsire is Star de Naskra, with the second damsire the wicked fast Whitesburg.

As a racehorse Cuvee entered the breeders cup juvenile favored, ( you can\'t make this stuff up) and was eased.  Bailey with an uninspired ride said he was dead at the half mile pole.  He never won again.

NP, on the bottom side has some class and middle distance performers that were mostly grass.  Overall this breeding is very precocious and NP has already outrun his lineage.

In top class racing, pedigree and class generally trump any other handicapping factors, and while a grade one winner, NP has a no chance ten furlong pedigree, and I would expect he would run opening Saturday at Churchill rather than a week later. bbb

[sekrah]

Noble\'s Promise slowing down?

BRIS\'s E1-E2/LP of his last 3 races.

BC Juvenily   - 55-69/114
CashCall Fut. - 72-71/106 vs LAL\'s 73-73/105
Rebel Stakes  - 81-96/104 vs LAL\'s 78-92/108

The last 3 he\'s been stalking the leaders (no more than 1 length back at the 2nd call) in fairly pedestrian fractions.. the Rebel was a little quicker pace than the synth races.

[jack72906]

Pedigrees are always a factor when a horse is trying something for the first time IMO. I would never throw pedigree out of the equation or use it as the tell all as to whether or not a horse can or can\'t do something. It\'s just another piece to the puzzle.

I agree it\'s questionable based on Pedigree ONLY as to whether or not NP can get 10f....BUT more importantly to me was his gallop out in the Rebel when he was stride for stride with LAL all the way into the first turn. When I see something like that especially after a long layoff, I think it\'s fair to say that he will probably improve in his next race and he may not be distance limited.