Penn National 3/17

[sekrah]

About to head out and make the 2 hour trek to Penn National.  Hopefully they can get the lights on tonight, I went down last fall and they couldn\'t get them on after the 1st race, which I got locked out of an $24 horse in because I didn\'t realize they changed their bet-shutoff procedure.  Went up to the simulcasting without the TGs for any other track and got slaughtered.  Awful trip.   Hoping for much better this time.

I\'ll give one pick out as I flipped through my book quickly.   2nd race, #1 SHE\'S A MAMBO, (15-1 ML).   A 16 from the rail looks like it\'ll win this race.   Starting back in September 09 at Calder as a 2-yo, she ran a 12, 24op, 12, 25, and then a 16 in late December.  The connections changed and the horse was brought up here in January where he was vet scratched.   Then ran a 26 on Feb 17 and a 22 twelve days ago.  She likes to go straight to the front and some of the others with 16-17s could get hung up wide.  The only question is if that effort 12 days was enough to get her sharp enough to blow a 16 or 17 here, if she can I think she wins this 6 furlong race with a 1w.  The trainer/jockey connections aren\'t the most inspiring but at 15-1 she\'s definently worth a shot.    I\'ve made worse bets. :-D.

Good luck to both of us.

[sekrah]

Horrific day..  Couldn\'t cash a ticket.   Speed was absolutely dead all night long and i couldn\'t adjust quick enough.  Screwed up huge opportunities in the last two races to get even.   If you do any kind of Penn National action mark this day down.   It was a night for the closers.

Add the horse U.S. Deputy to your watchlist folks.   He ran in the first race, pressed the pace 3w3w before gassing and finished 5th, 10 lengths back.   This horse was coming off a 2-month layoff and looked absolutely incredible in the paddock (and then I went on to lose money on him after initially wanting to pass the race, boooo!).   Jamie Ness claimed him for the 5K tag right after this race.  He has some hidden form with his previous two races being a 5th placed \"X\" and prior to that a 7 that paired his top.  That too is hidden by a 4w5w trip, 4th place finish 10 lengths back.

When this horse comes back to the track I am expecting a very nice overlay and plan on unloading on him in every way, shape, and form.

[Lost Cause]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
 Jamie Ness claimed him for the 5K tag right after this race

> When this horse comes back to the track I am
> expecting a very nice overlay and plan on
> unloading on him in every way, shape, and form.


The fact that Jamie Ness claimed this horse last night is going to ruin any chance at getting a price on this one next time..

[sekrah]

Nah.. Not at all.. Several of his horses went off at prices..   Stephanie Beattie horses get let go all the time as well.   She had a $12 winner last night.

Ness had a horse go off at 15-1 in the 2nd that I thought was fairly competitive on TGs but looks liked crap on traditional PPs.   Another that went off at 7/2 in a big field that look very good on both forms.

With the horses running line the last few races I think I can get 4-1 or better on it, and if I do, I\'ll be very happy.

[Rich Curtis]

Sekrah wrote:

\"Speed was absolutely dead all night long\"

I can\'t imagine that this belief would survive a second look at the results.

[sekrah]

Well the result charts say it, it must be true right?

1 horse one wire-to-wire all night and it was in pedestrian fashion and the winner came home in 27.3 after pedestrian fraction.   It was a garbage race with 11 horses, 1 super-chalk that got crushed at the start (there was a trainers hold on the race for 5 minutes), 3 horses 4-5 points slower than him, and the rest another 6+ points slower than those three.   Was any of that information in your precious result charts?

There were two other horses that were right up near the lead that one.  Oee was a 4/5 favorite that based on TG numbers should of won by 10 lengths.   He was better than EVERYBODY except the 3 that didn\'t fire at all.   A first-timer starter nearly nabbed him for the win.   The other was a Stephanie horse in the 4th at 5 furlongs that practically got away with walking the first two furlongs before hanging on for the win.    More than half of that field was coming off maiden wins where they figured to bounce.

I overheard two different jockeys talking to their connections that \"Speeds dead\".

This is a track where 4 of 6 mile races last week were wired.  8 of the 16 6 furlong races were wired.

[Rich Curtis]

Sekrah wrote:

\"Well the result charts say it, it must be true right?\"

Pardon me for considering that to be a notch above \"Sekrah said it. It must be true.\"

Take a look at race one and race four, plus the final race. Speed was \"absolutely dead\"? Absolute nonsense.

[sekrah]

Try reading my post next time and also, considering A) I was there, B) I seen the forms on all of the horses in the field, C) I heard jockeys/seen it with my own eyes.. T think I\'m in a bit better position than you to decide what the track was..  It was dead a doornail.