Ok lets run down the Florida Derby!

[nyc1347]

When he ran the 2 he had 30 days off and went back 2 points.  he didnt come out til february (for whatever reasons).  When he did come back he ran a new top.  I guess you can say he didnt NEED 3 months off BUT..

when he had 1 month off at the 2 level -      bounce 2 points.

when he had 3 months off from the 2 level -  went forward one point.


Coming into tomorrows race he once again has 1 month off now at the 1 level.

My opinion is based on the above thinking within Rule\'s pattern.  From this level which is only 1 point better from the previous top I expect Rule to need about 2 more months til he runs another top or new top effort. He should regress or bounce tomorrow.

[Flighted Iron]

nyc,

On this play I think the best approach would be a $1 pick 3 races 9-11 all with all with 10.. for $81


If you\'re anticipating 25-40/1 would it not be more practical to wager
the $81 to win?


mjs

[nyc1347]

I definitely understand what ur saying with the win wager.  The key with the pick 3 wager is that Im projecting D\' Funnybone as an underlay for that race at 6/5 and ultimately im going for a huge homerun pick 3 ticket that would pay more than $5000 on a $1 ticket.  More than likely it will not happen but even $1600 would get me his original 20-1 ML odds.   Also important to say that if BA happens to go off a 15 to 1 and get bet im still getting that 20-1 ML perspective betting ahead within the pick 3. Anytime you hit a 20-1 ML on a pick 3 ticket in the second or third leg its bound to pay huge due to public perspective looking beyond the first race.   Either way im covering myself if BA happens to take some kind of money and itll still be a nice return if he wins.. plus il have my wps anyway.

[jack72906]

I understand your reasoning here as to why you think he may regress. However, I think he\'s going to regress and he\'s vulnerable because of the pace not because of the days off.

If anyone has a good idea of how this race shape will play out I\'d like to hear that. The Race Shape has of all horses Soaring Empire on the lead at 1C, but GOD, FD, Rule, and MR could all be there.

I love BA\'s pattern and he looks like he\'s going to move forward, but he will undoubtedly be 3w at best with all the speed inside of him from the 10 post. Radiohead is up against it. The 11 post is 0-27 since the course reconfig at 8-9f. Big Brown was in post 12 which is 1-44.

I\'m definitely playing against him with a mix of SO, Dudes, MR, and BA underneath. Check out MR BRIS LP#s. Pretty sure he\'ll be able to come from off the pace.

[nyc1347]

jack72906 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I understand your reasoning here as to why you
> think he may regress. However, I think he\'s going
> to regress and he\'s vulnerable because of the pace
> not because of the days off.



I dont picture pace being such a huge factor.  Will they go blazing :22 (h_pace)?    will they go :26 (slpace)?  I dunno.  But it will most likely be somewhere in between.  Coming into this race and doing the analysis I cant take that into consideration cause I have to assume that the race will go naturally (:23-:24) and around :46-:47 or so to the half.  There is no way to gauge that face pace although based on every horse in the race, it doesnt look like theres a speedball in here that would cause any of that to happen.  The slower pace looks even more unlikely.  

Based on saying that, the pattern is the pattern and the horse has shown a weakness being put into this situation in the past with the rest factor so the opinion remains consistent with a bounce or regression whether its a \"favorable\" or \"non-favorable\" pace scenario.

[TGAB]

Nyc1347\'s point about the prior reaction to the bounce, the time needed to recover and how it might be interpreted here is logical and deductively sound.

But as Jerry is or was wont to say (he hasn\'t said it much in the last few years) is that, no offense intended, \"it\'s more complicated than that.\"

Now that\'s me, Alan, talking and the point I want to make is that we\'re looking at two dimensional representations of at least three dimensional behavior. There are a lot of things going on that two planes can\'t tell us about. In the case of Rule (and all the others in here),growth and development are happening as we speak. Dynamism characterizes this whole development phase, this age. So while Rule reacted late last year to the top and needed time to recover, and came back this year with a new top, I agree a good sign, the expectation of a bounce today, not unreasonable and certainly possible given the behavior last year, nonetheless may not necessarily be forthcoming due to growth and development which the top last out signfies but so may the abbrevated recovery period which we won\'t know about for sure until after the figure comes in.

Let me give you another example. First Dude ran three at the same level before finally moving forward last out. Conventionally interpreted, this is an okay horse--it hasn\'t bounced--but annoying. Good, young horses should be running new tops every other race. Can\'t dispute that reasoning but don\'t mortal things grow at different rates. Some shoot up early, some late, some in multiple phases, some in one or two jumps. The point is First Dude is starting to move now and it may be that last 2 point move is the tip of the iceberg for all we know. It may not be too.

As my 9th grade science teacher said \"the past is the key to the future\" and that\'s why we look at sheet patterns and lots of them for formulate opinions as to how current replicas will play out. But there are a lot of things going on that we can\'t measure accurately, real factors happening randomly which can affect outcomes. To the extent that one can at least be cognizant that these random factors may be at play may allow one to view and interpret a line differently which may or may not be lucrative.

[richiebee]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> 3)   i question base on pattern:  
>
> a.  will this horse run a new top?   no bc it
> needs 3 months off based on pattern.
> b.  will it pair?   well last time the horse had a
> month off with the 2 effort it went backwards 1.75
> points so most likely not.
> c.  will it go backwards?  based on the 2 being an
> effort the horse reacted on with 7 weeks off why
> wouldnt the 1 do the same thing if not even more?

 
NYC/Anyone:

Has a March 3YO who has raced 6 times, including a July debut followed by 60 days
off, established a \"pattern\" yet? The larger the sample, the more helpful the
pattern analysis (my opinion). The grizzled veteran in this field is Radiohead
with 8 starts. The field of 11 has 52 starts among them. When it comes to runners
at this stage of their career, pattern/schmattern say I. And when it comes to TC
races or preps, stamina, whether it be a function of breeding or conditioning,
will be given added emphasis in my handicapping.

In Saturday\'s Fla Derby, a field of 11, 3 Graded wins, 52 starts. Secretariat won
5 Graded stakes as a 2YO,also finished first in the Champagne but got taken down.
As a 2YO Spectacular Bid won 5 stakes races in 7 starts, and then swept the three
important Gulfstream stakes races for 3YOs-- Hutcheson, Fountain of Youth and
Florida Derby.

NYC:

I appreciate your fervor for Best Actor, and will use him protectively in doubles.
Selfishly, I hope this colt runs well back and the Wests take him off the TC
trail.

Sample ever so small so far (and thats all I will divulge), but the RHTs I think
will prove better on the lawn than on dirt. Hope Best Actor gets tossed into a
turf stake and I will bet with more confidence.

[nyc1347]

Rule HAS established a pattern and its forward moving.  BUT that forward moving pattern seems to have been disrupted at the 2 level where RUle has shown to bounce/regress.  The 1 effort is a great example of this forward movement pattern once again and this pattern has been well established from day one.  Once again though we are entering a situation where the horse is confronted with a \"disruptive\" issue again tomorrow with the rest factor based on what he has showed us previously.  Although horses do improve and develop I dont think we can say much more about this other than what has been already shown with Rules line.  With one month off at this level, he should bounce or regress based on the rest.


Also,  The biggest reason for all my typing in a nutshell is to say that Rule is a complete underlay in my opinion tomorrow and may not even hit the board.  I do understand what TGAB is saying but the fact is that by all of us looking into this race for tomorrow we cant go by anything else other than what the horse has previously shown to us.  With that being said a horse that is moving forward and is proven to be moving forward with no interruptions is more likely than not to win this race.  Rule, especially as a favorite, is a complete underlay/toss based on what he has shown to us.  \"The past is the key to the future\"

Im not trying to make this HUGE case for BA cause reality is that any horse moving forward here can and will most likely win.  The biggest reason for the play is the odds I am getting weighed upon other factors that lie within the other horses patterns in comparison.  20-1 ML as co 4th fastest is a pretty good play based on raw numbers alone but when u start taking the rest factor with other factors and the big jumps that others have done I start to realize that BA has a really good shot to run great compared to the expectations of others.

[mjellish]

I think this has been beaten to death.  Let\'s wait and see what happens.  Should be entertaining.  I think the bonnie miss is a much better betting race

[toppled]

Here\'s my 2 cents:
The biggest problem I have with Best Actor is that last race looks pretty much like a negative key race to me,next out: winner-finished 4th, 2-8th, 4-8th, 5th-8th, 6-4th (3 BA & 7 yet to race).  
My take on the 2 maiden winners: I don\'t view Miner\'s Reserve\'s big jump up in his 2nd race as a negative.  I\'m taking a different view.  In his 1st race, Zito had him out there for experience-the # he got is not relevant as a baseline.  He ran big in his 1st time meant 2nd race & until today we don\'t know if he goes forward or backwards.  Unfortunately, there are no finishers behind him that have run back, so I can\'t get a read on the race.  
The other big maiden winner, Game On Dude, I don\'t view as mismanaged and ready to bounce. Obviously, he was more meant than MR when they met on 1/23 and improved to win his 2nd start. He might just be the type who will continue to go forward & his bounce is not today. I have a friend who is a trip handicapper who absolutely loves him today off that last race & is so far out on the ledge that he\'s talking a possible Derby win if Game On Dude wins today.  I\'m not nearly that enthused about him, but I think he\'s a legitimate contender today. On the key race front, so far only one horse the 8th place finisher has come out of his maiden win-8th won a maiden claimer yesterday.  I\'ll be watching how 2nd place finisher Our Dark Knight does in the 5th.  A win by ODK would get me leaning to Game On Dude.
I\'m going to go deeper adding Rule & First Dude into my DDs & p3s as, while I\'ll be protecting with the obvious D\'Funnybone, I\'m going to try to beat him with 1st time dirt Privilaged at 20-1 ml in the Swale.  Look at the sire data on Southern Image-Privilaged could be a move up on dirt & could be the only horse capable of beating D\'in the Swale.

[SonicDonn]

Great betting opportunity in this field of 11.

Rule, the 5/2 favorite, will be lower than 5/2 and will not win and may be off the board.

Radiohead, the 3-1 second choice, has no shot and will most likely be off the board.

Lentenor, the 6-1 co-third choice is a joke and should be 36-1.  


As far as the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown.

Eskendereya will win the Derby unless something bad (injury, illness) happens to him and has a very good chance to win the Triple Crown.

What odds can I get right now on Eskendereya to win the Triple Crown?



Great weather in NY. Enjoy your Saturday.

[RICH]

Toppled

There is that one horse that looks to get in there today in the dfunnybone race, I\'m all over him.

Good Luck

[nyc1347]

Man I figured Rule and the 2 other favorites would be an underlay/toss but with so many other horses pushing forward its so hard to tell which one is going to pop!   Good news for the Rule fans though is that he will have about 80 days from the 1 effort when he enters the derby which means he should come back to  or around the top 1 effort again.

[SonicDonn]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Man I figured Rule and the 2 other favorites would
> be an underlay/toss but with so many other horses
> pushing forward its so hard to tell which one is
> going to pop!   Good news for the Rule fans though
> is that he will have about 80 days from the 1
> effort when he enters the derby which means he
> should come back to  or around the top 1 effort
> again.


Yeah, it was kind of crazy figuring out what to do. I bet so many combinations in exactas and triples.

Ice Box was one of two hoses I bet to win (Pulsion was the other) and I had the exacta 5 times.

I bet A LOT of money into triples but I did not use Rule at all so I missed it. Stupid, I guess. Rule ran ok but he has no shot to win the Kentucky Derby.

Still looking to find out what odds I can get on Eskendereya right now to win the Triple Crown. Any idea? The odds won\'t be much after the Derby.