NYC-
Look,
You have your opinion that a good pattern trumps distance, even at 1 1/4, and I can see that nothing will probably change that. I believe you are dead wrong, but what the hell, it\'s your money.
But since it is your money, here\'s what I propose. Let\'s see what happens between now and the KY Derby. If I still feel the way I do about Noble\'s Promise, and you still feel the way you do then I propose a bet. You can have Noble\'s Promise. I will pick a horse that I think will finish ahead of him, and I will let you exclude 3 from the race. So for example, you can tell me no ESK, no LAL, no Rule, whatever you want. Whichever pick finishes better that guy wins the bet. We can discuss the amount later and in private. I\'ll even give you my cell phone number, and we can put the money in an escrow account before the race.
As an aside, I\'m not exactly sure how to take it when you post before a race saying that Amen Hallelujah is going to run a track record, but post after the race that you played her underneath in an EX. I know how tough this game is and I know that I can\'t always pick winners. And when I miss I take my lumps. Based upon what I have actually seen you post here on the board about who you liked and how you were going to wager BEFORE a race, I would say as a show better you are down money. I always watch the pools in any race I am going to play, and one of them happened to be a race that you said you were laying down $4k to show. I watched the show pool and the only flash where the pool on that horse ever went up by 4K was the second to last one, and that was barely over $4k. True, it\'s possible that you may have been the only one betting show on that horse at that time, but I doubt it. You may also have put your bet in over time in $500 increments or something, which is entirely possible. But regardless of whether you are winning and betting as you say, you have done a pretty good job of doping out some decent horses based their sheets. And I give credit where credit is due for that. You also do a pretty good job of talking TG #\'s and patterns.
But if I am going to be honest, I should tell you that your posts don\'t strike me as coming from someone who has been playing horses seriously for very long. This is a tough, tough game. And any regular player is going to take his lumps, even a show better. While show betting is relatively safe, it is much tougher to make money that way. If you ask any professional player they will tell you that there aren\'t many that grind out much of a living by show betting. In fact, most pro players don\'t tend to grind it out at all. The win or lose a bit, but they keep swinging for the big windfalls and when they hit they hit big. I will lay down $10k-$50k if I see something I really like, and I\'m not even a big better compared to some of the people I\'ve hung around with. And not a one of them has ever made much money by playing it safe in the show pool. So I think you have some lessons to learn at the windows. But I also think you add to the discussion on this board.
I don\'t have time to argue my point about distance vs. patterns with you, and you appear to have strong convictions that differ from mine. So let\'s just pick this discussion back up the week before the KY Derby and put out money where our keystrokes are. Sound good?
And keep the good sheet discussions coming!
