Wood and SA Derby

[Silver Charm]

This is a quality field in the Wood. I know the small numbers make the Triand Super, etc lite but there are 4 really nice 3YO.

Esky draws inside and may gun and wire if he can. Jock better be looking over his shoulder a lot because both Awesome Act and Schoolyard make very quick smart moves on the turn in their last.

If they do not hook Esky by the head of the lane then he is probably gone. But is that best for their Derby chances....Hmmmmm.

Lucky gets a free pass in SA Derby I\'m reading. A runner slow on Figs but large on talent just needs to show up and not get hurt. If that\'s the case and he still wins then the Calif horses are RATS and the Wood is everyones key race....

[jimbo66]

Silver,

I am not sure what is more \"off\" with this post, your reading of the PP\'s or your assumptions about trainer intent with the top 2 Derby Candidates.

Eskenderaya is not \"gunning and wiring\" any field.  Pletcher may not have won a Derby, but he certainly knows the best formula for winning one.  Eskenereaya will leave the gate and tuck/stalk, just like he did in the Fountain of Youth, most likely sitting just off of the rail horse, Most Happy Fella. He will inherit the lead on the far turn and then have to hold off the horses you named, Schoolyard Dreams and Awesome Act.  Whether the race is \"bettable\" or not, depends on how short Eskenderaya goes off.  if he goes off 3-5 or lower, I believe the race is bettable.  There was nothing wrong with is Tampa Bay Derby, but any time a good trainer changes his game plan with a horse to give them more time off after a big effort, that is enough of a reason for me to think \"bounce\" is on the way and take a shot against.  I thought the finish of the Tampa Bay derby showed 3 horses that had nothing left.  However, with the premature move by Rose and now the switch to Dominguez, I can take a shot with Schoolyard Dreams in this race if I can get 9-2 or so.

As for the Santa Anita Derby, not sure why you would think Lucky is getting a \"free pass\".  Have you looked at the races by Sydney\'s Candy at all?  yes, he caught a relatively soft pace last time but he was sprinting in the stretch.  I see him likely getting ANOTHER relatively soft pace tomorrow.  He should strech out OK IMO as he is by Candy Ride, who beat Medaglia at 1 1/4 in the Pacific Classic.  Assuming that #3 Who\'s Up doesn\'t go \"gung ho\" for the lead or the ever unpredictable Pro-Ride isn\'t killing speed, Sydney\'s Candy should be tough to beat in the Santa Anita Derby.  Not to mention that there is no way that Baffert will have the screws tightened on Lookin at Lucky for this one.  The \"mediocre synthetic final prep\" strategy has worked fine the last few years for the Derby.  (see Street Sense).  

IMO now is a good time to bet against both Eskenderaya and Lookin at Lucky.

Good luck to all.

Jim

[toppled]

I don\'t see Looking At Lucky as a slow figure horse at all.  His 2 yo top is right where I\'d want to see it & that new top at Oaklawn destroys the field at SA if he pairs or comes close. Some of the writers are all gaga over Sidney\'s Candy because he\'s the lone speed and actually are talking the race up.  Sure it may be true that LAL doesn\'t have to do that much to beat these, but no matter how bad this California bunch looks, to take LAL lightly if he doesn\'t jog off by 10 may be underestimating the best 3yo around.  The Wood has a lot of quality, but I don\'t know if any of the Wood horses can come close to LAL on May 1st.  That bunch is going to have to work a lot harder than LAL, Eskendereya, Awesome Act or someone else may have to go negative to win it-they need the earnings and will be extending themselves, As far as Pletcher goes, and it seems whenever a TAP 3yo goes negative in his last race before the Derby, he becomes a super ball at Churchill.

[Silver Charm]

Well its not quite The Easter Buuny coming back but sort of The Grinch.

Esky will try and gun and gallop. I\'m stickin to it. I did not say he would win..

Lucky has run nowhere near as fast as SS had. This horse is really good. The Baffert Premium on odds has to equate to performance.

NBC will be at SA. I have a hard time figuring Baffert will be to far from the cameras. The question is which stroy will he be giving. The \"Why we Won\" or \"why we are set up now\"

[jimbo66]

Silver,

We will see.  Esky won\'t be on the lead, that I am pretty sure of.

As for Lucky and how fast he has run, I don\'t want to start the whole \"compacted figures on synthetics\" debate.  That is almost as old as the Rachel/Zenyatta debate or the \"I hate synthetics\" posts.  Lucky ran a 0 at Oaklawn.  That is very solid for this year\'s crop.  Street Sense had run a negative 2 in the BC and never got close to it again in his preps, but then paired it in the Derby.  I don\'t think Lucky will be cranked tomorrow.  To think that because the race is on TV and Baffert likes attention, would change his strategy for getting a possible Derby winner to the race in the best form is just not good analysis, period.

[SoCalMan2]

Is it possible that Jackson Bend is a 0-2-X?  Zito can be pretty tricky when he is shipping North, and this horse\'s last fig could be quite forgiveable. Has anybody seen a 0-2-X of this nature (I.e. spread out over two seasons)?  Is it as potent as the normal 0-2-X?

[nyc1347]

After running a nice effort last year in october Awesome Act regressed next out with shorter rest running on the turf. Although tomorrows race is on dirt, with only 4 weeks off from that nice AQ effort Im taking this angle as somewhat of an indication that top efforts for this horse at a higher level are a bigger thing (and more rest is needed).. so im expecting a regression or bounce tomorrow.

Jackson Bend has not impressed me whatsoever and this is the last gasp of air for this horse.  Im not expecting anything special at all.. MAYBE a third and that be saying a lot.. il pass.

Eske is in a league of his own and should have no issues..  Schoolyard will most likely gets the shaft again and should be best of the rest in this field.  Il save small with School on top of Eske as he has shown to be able to take on short rest with no issues and may go forward again but im highly doubting Eske will lose this.

Value may come for third for the tri with the bombs but in my opinion its Eske then School to the wire tommorrow.  



If you think LAL is losing tomorrow your nuts lol   Im putting him on top with Setsuko and Alphies Best in a nice exacta.. will have no choice but to reverse small just in case since the money is there but just like the Wood this one seems pretty straight forward to me.

Side Note:  Battle of Hastings should regress tomorrow.. Im doing a big show wager on Aitcho.. B of H will most likely be bet pretty heavy coming from the rail and I cant imagine him winning tomorrow.  Good Luck!

[richiebee]

Lucky dominated West Coast rivals as a 2YO but somehow only ran one 2YO TG# that
really lays over this field. Just the way I\'m looking at it.

What is Lucky\'s motivation? He is Derby gate secure earnings wise. Baffert is
likely looking for an engineered regression.

Likely 2nd and 3rd faves Sidney\'s Candy and Caracortado arguably have the number
power to give an 85% wound Lucky a good challenge.

I might stab with northern Cal invader, Skipshot, who has improved disturbingly
as a 3YO. Yes the Skip Aways move forward from 2 to 3, but of course this one
went from a low profile Cal trainer to Jerry Hollendorfer. If Skipshot can move
forward again and rate a bit, maybe he grabs a piece at a price.

In any case, if Lucky comes out of this race in good order, he goes to Louisville
a deserving Derby fave.

In the Ozone Park prep, I hate to disagree with some on this board, but I see the
Wood as a 2 horse race. Both the Philly/Tampa colt (who I thought Rule handled
easily) and the Calder Stallion series colt have to show me they are of the
quality of the top two. Not a betting event for me as I will look to the multiple
stakes card at Synthetic Anita and an interesting Ashland in Lexington.

[albany]

Richie:

Do you have an opinion in the Ashland?

Albany

[richiebee]

Albany:

At my first glance, I note that 3 of these won Keeneland route races as 2YOs.

Upperline was very good in her Keeneland race, arguably faster than Negligee was
in her Alcibiades win, and has run well in 2 turf tries as a 3YO. Returns to the
scene of her lifetime best TG performance at 8/1.

The Ashland is sandwiched between two competitive looking turf races, making for
some good multi race wagering opps.

Between Santa Anita and Kee, plenty of midnight oil to burn.

[albany]

Richie:

Seems like a good value. I may use Protesting underneath Upperline and a couple of others.

Thanks for the insight.

Albany

[SoCalMan2]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> After running a nice effort last year in october
> Awesome Act regressed next out with shorter rest
> running on the turf. Although tomorrows race is on
> dirt, with only 4 weeks off from that nice AQ
> effort Im taking this angle as somewhat of an
> indication that top efforts for this horse at a
> higher level are a bigger thing (and more rest is
> needed).. so im expecting a regression or bounce
> tomorrow.
NYC1347,

When you say that Awesome Act regressed, what do you mean?  When I look at his sheet, I see a horse who has never reacted much less regressed or bounced.  Are you looking at different numbers than Thorograph?  What is the basis that you say he regressed?  I dont follow.

[Leamas57]

In the SA Derby, I am going to use the one horse that probably no one will use: Who\'s Up. I will use him mostly underneath, with SC and LAL, but this guy is the one wildcard in this bunch who has a lot to like.

Leamas

[Uncle Buck]

The Wood didn\'t lay the Wood this year at all. Least interesting race of the day IMO. Old master Mandella will have Setusko ready to run a new top in the SA Derby, of that I\'m 90% sure. He\'s my key.

[drbillym]

Totally agree with Leamas.  Whos up can take the lead as the owners stated they would be aggressive.  They might want to teach Sidney to rate, and Lookin at Lucky doesn\'t need to be used hard today.  So they might let whos up go.  will also key with SC and LAL.