ROTW Analysis

[nyc1347]

Disgusting race and only one horse sticks out to me.   Carnival queen ran two nice races and paired back to back then regressed after those.  No reason to think the horse wouldnt come back to a top or new effort.  4-1 ML is good overlay value imo and everything else looks like puke.. or Pyro running on the Polytrack.. il let you decide.

[Rick B.]

Kudos to the TG brain trust for selecting a race of ordinary claimers (or as I call them, \"Horses With Issues\") as ROTW -- a bit trickier getting a good read on these, IMO.

[TreadHead]

Have to take a stand against Birdie Birdie here, for as much as it is a classic 0-2-X pattern as the analysis says, they are leaving out an important factor in the steady drop in price this horse has taken over the past few races, first moving out of alw conditions and now on the way down the claiming rungs.  This is usually a classic indication that the horse is on his way out, and this is usually an angle that does not come into consideration given that most ROTWs are stakes races.

I\'d much rather have the Ellis or Canani horses, although they are short odds.  The only longshots I\'m really looking at are the 2 or the 4.  If the 3 stays 5-1, that seems like good value here.

[TGAB]

That\'s a nice hit if you used the 4 w/the others.

[TreadHead]

Thx Alan, I didn\'t play the super, but did get that tri which was very nice.  Thanks again for the free data.  I\'m sure you would beat me in a handicapping contest 9 times out of 10, but I have had somewhat regular success playing against horses who have dropped more than once and run worse each time, so I thought I would offer a dissenting opinion.

To me, including the 4 was all about the \"Mine That Bird\" rule, which basically means number power takes a back seat to surface questions.  Since the 4 had never raced on turf, was the fastest early horse, and the HOL turf has been very favorable to speed, it seemed like a good spot to try him.  As we saw with the slime MTB raced on last year in the derby, number power means very little until you answer the question of who likes the surface the most.