a few random thoughts from Louisville

[covelj70]

1.  I was on the backstretch this morning and was able to see 15 out of the 20 Derby horses.  American Lion looks BY far to me to be doing the best of all of the Derby horses.  PAddy O Prado gallops with alot of energy as well and looks good.  He definitely moves like a turf horse to me but he is doing well.

2. The rail is not very live.  I don\'t know if I would call it dead but no one won on the rail and no one won on the lead. Maybe tomorrow is totally different with the rain but we need to watch the rail closely in the early races to see if Calvin\'s antics will be any good.

3. That photo in the Oaks killed me.  I was heavy with Evening Jewel in the doubles.  Ouch.

4. Based on what I saw on the backstretch, the rail not being that live and the odds, I am switching to American Lion as my top pick.  Fastest in the race on the TG\'s, training huge, bred to love the slop, and a big price on the board.  I will land there tomorrow unless something changes.

good luck to everyone tommorow.

[TreadHead]

Not to play devil\'s advocate, but if they seal the track tomorrow (very likely I\'d think?) couldn\'t it be a completely different track tomorrow?  Didn\'t they say last year that the rail is the place to be when that track gets soaked?

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:
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>
> 3. That photo in the Oaks killed me.  I was heavy
> with Evening Jewel in the doubles.  Ouch.
>
>

There was only one p6 ticket alive today (156K) and that was with Evening Jewel..That person probably threw up after the photo..I didn\'t bet on Evening Jewel but I was calling for her just because of that..

[covelj70]

yeap, very likely that rail is totally different today.

[dannyboy135]

This will be my 26th consecutive derby and by far my worst betting week.  I made huge bets on Workin for hops in the turf stakes and age of Humor in the Oaks.  Age flipped her soft palet or bled, working for hops fell out of the gate and never got a hold of the turf.  
Mission impazible is my derby horse.  Not the fastest horse but training like a bear and will relish the sloppy going.  I will use American lion, devil may care and looking at lucky.