Good Handicapping...

[jimbo66]

Good handicapping by quite a few people on this board in the Derby. Congrats to all of them.  

Sekrah, Michael D. on his futures bet, Rich, and a whole bunch of other posters who I remember \"replying to\" and saying Super Saver wasn\'t going to win.  

I guess I will take \"needs to pass horses\" off the list for next year\'s requirements....

Anybody know of any two-year olds that Borel might have an early commitment on?  never too early to look at the futures..

I am turning the page and looking ahead to the Preakness.  Which scenario is the one to use when looking ahead?

1.  Super Saver, well bred for the wet strip and working well over the wet strip before the race, was moved up by the sloppy conditions and will be vulnerable as the favorite in the Preakness

or

2.  You have a Derby winner who won pretty damn easily, who only had two preps before the derby, so is relatively fresh.  With a buch of horses that \"x\'ed\" behind him, he is not only going to be tough in the PReakness but may have a shot at the triple crown.

[Michael D.]

Thanks Jim.

My Derby picks over the past few years have been atrocious, so it\'s nice to hit one. Now I\'m virtually guaranteed to butcher the Preakness and Belmont.

Going forward, I think SS is real. He\'s a good sized long-striding colt with impeccable distance genes. He has good speed, and has learned to rate well; SS has the running style of recent Derby winners that went on to win the Preakness. Having the hottest trainer in the land and top 3 jock doesn\'t hurt either. On the other hand, any colt running on 2 weeks has a gigantic bull\'s-eye on his tail. Pletcher\'s ROI stats are outstanding 3rd off the layoff, not so good 11-29 days. Short rest may get to him 4th out. And the colt will be over bet off a Derby run that wasn\'t as good as it looked. Absolute dream trip and a ton of trouble behind him. SS should have been able to draw away and win by 5.

I\'m a big fan of SS, and probably won\'t bet against him in the Preakness, but it\'s tough to make a strong bull case at low odds.

And Jim, you\'re lucky Twin Spires crashed before the race. I would have bet as much to win on Dublin as it took to push the odds from 20-1 to 19.9-1. I owe you one. That guy actually ran well. I didn\'t like him at all, but the figure will come back pretty good. Could be dangerous in races with small fields.

[Uncle Buck]

Jim. Here\'s a question for your question. SS and IB run at Pimlico in 2 weeks. Both draw well. Track is fast. 5 min before post SS is 8/5 and IB is 5/2. Who you gonna play?

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I forgot about the bet on Dublin.  At least I won that one.  AGree with everything you say about SS as far as the Preakness goes.  

Buck,

Having watched the replay about 10 to 15 times now, my early view would be that I am betting Lookin at Lucky in the Preakness, if he runs, assuming that he goes off 3rd choice.  SS got a great trip on a track he loved.  Ice Box ran into serious serious trouble on the far turn and then came flying, but that is usually the kind that I don\'t bet (deep closers who come running late after the race is over, looking like they could have won).  Lookin at Lucky ran a gutsy race, IMO. He got pinched back and hit where the rails first appear about 100 yards from the gate, then got crushed against the rail again, about 100 yards later.  Then seemed to get stopped down the backstretch again.  To me, the horse is supposed to run 19th with that trouble.  the fact that he was still trying in the stretch and passing a bunch of horses, albeit in a non-contending way, is a big plus for me with this horse.  

But I have time to change my mind in the next two weeks!!