I think Super Saver is a great bet against in the Preakness

[covelj70]

I didn\'t say that he would finish out of the money, just that he wasn\'t likely to win.  If we can get him out of the top spot, that\'s all it will take to cash a nice ticket.

thanks for the thoughts, always appreciated.

[sekrah]

Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I cannot wait to bet against SS in the Preakness.
> Perfect trip winner in all respects plus he
> benefitted from Calvin\'s Churchill magic and
> troubled trips for Ice Box, Paddy, and Lucky.


First, I doubt Ice Box, Paddy, or Lucky will be running in the Preakness, but we\'ll see.

Second, Only two horses who were in the top 8 at the 4f and 6f mark managed to stick in the top 8 at the finish.  Super Saver and Noble\'s Promise.   These were the most impressive horses in the race IMO.  And put me in the camp that says Martinez moved too soon on NP.  I personally believe he made two foolish/impatient middle moves with that horse, wrecking any chance he had to hit the board.     Everybody else in the Top 8 were well off the pace and greatly benefitted by a super sharp pace.  A couple of them guys might have gotten trouble trips, but they were also giftwrapped perfect fractions.

Third, the Preakness race looks to set up much softer than this one.

[sekrah]

I just watched the 2007 Preakness and I thought Calvin\'s ride was great.   Lost a head-bob to a very special, World Class race horse.  Those two had 4 lenghts on the rest of the field.   That Preakness race held up as Street Sense\'s career best Beyer.

2 Preakness mounts -  1 win with a filly, 1 losing a head-bob to a future World Champion.


Belmont is where I would have more concerns with Super Saver and Borel as he hasn\'t had much success there (0 for 5 lifetime, MTB stands out) and that track\'s size is uniquely different than most others.

If Super Saver wins the Preakness, I hope Calvin has enough sense to spend a week or two in New York or atleast take a few mounts on the Belmont undercard this year, like he didn\'t do last year.

[MonmouthGuy]

I think Looking at Lucky becomes the \"bet against\" if he comes back in two weeks.  He will get a lot of excuses for getting squeezed and wiped out, which certainly affected his forward position entering the first turn. That being said, he entered the first turn running freely several lengths ahead of the ultimate 2nd and 4th place finishers, made a strong middle move and flattened out -- similar to Colonel John and Circular Quay.  I\'d expect similar at Pimlico.

[moosepalm]

Well, in the absence of knowing who will be running, what their figures look like and what the odds might be, a rather peripheral take on the whole thing suggests SS could be a nice horse to key underneath in supers.  So far, he has only won at Churchill or in the slop, or both.  Otherwise, he hits the supers but get beat by horses like Line of David and Schoolyard Dreams.  There\'s nothing to suggest he isn\'t a very solid horse, but, in most of his races he\'s been just one more very solid horse.

[Lost Cause]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>> Second, Only two horses who were in the top 8 at
> the 4f and 6f mark managed to stick in the top 8
> at the finish.  Super Saver and Noble\'s Promise.  
> These were the most impressive horses in the race
> IMO.  And put me in the camp that says Martinez
> moved too soon on NP.  I personally believe he
> made two foolish/impatient middle moves with that
> horse, wrecking any chance he had to hit the
> board.     >


It\'s always the same story with Nobles Promise , he takes the lead and then stops at the eighth pole.  The horse just does not seem to handle the distances over a mile very well..  Against lesser horses he will probably be able to make it but against a higher quality bunch it will always be the same situation..This horse should run in the Met Mile not the preakness.

[miff]

The Met Mile is usually a race with big early gas.A one turn elongated sprint is very different than the two turn races NP has run in recently. Nickle bred continues to show up and made one of the only live runs in the derby.

Would not discount as a him as a board threat in the Preakness if Ramon Dominguez rides.Rumor has the connections looking into this and running.


Mike

[covelj70]

NP is this year\'s version of Musket Man.  Awesome horse who outruns his pedigree but a mile and quarter is just too much for him.

He will be tremendous if they keep him sound to run at shorter distances.

[bobphilo]

>Belmont is where I would have more concerns with Super Saver and Borel as he >hasn\'t had much success there (0 for 5 lifetime, MTB stands out) and that >track\'s size is uniquely different than most others.

>If Super Saver wins the Preakness, I hope Calvin has enough sense to spend a >week or two in New York or atleast take a few mounts on the Belmont undercard >this year, like he didn\'t do last year.


Totally agree, sekrah. Borel is great at tracks configured like Churchill (that he knows like the palm of his hand) and Pimlico. He may have not had much formal education but he is brilliant at calculating how much the tiring horse ahead of him will drift from the rail on the those tight turns and how much horse he has to get through that opening.

Belmont is a whole different ball of wax. Horses are less likely to drift on those wide sweeping turns and saving ground is not as important there as well.

Most importantly, Big Sandy is different from all other U.S. tracks in terms of relation of the location of the furlong markers to the turns. That\'s why so many riders that haven\'t ridden there much, often miss-time their move, including Calvin, who was so overconfident last year with Mine That Bird that he didn\'t bother to ride a single race prior to Belmont day. Kent D, who had learned this same lesson the hard way on Real Quiet, said \"Calvin is naive on these matters\", before going out and beating him with a well-timed ride on Summer Bird.

Bob

[jack72906]

A mile is probably perfect for him. I\'d even give him 1 1/16. As far as the Met Mile I thought I read somewhere that Quality Road was aiming for that.

[Beginner]

Great call - completely tossed SS based on this and had a pretty good day.  Thx!