Hurrican Ike Out - Pace Scenario

[jimbo66]

The pace scenario just got even more interesting with Hurrican Ike dropping out.  He seemed to be the likely pacesetter, with several like Super Saver and Paddy\'s Prado fighting for the \"catbird\'s seat\", sitting right off a horse on the lead who may not want the distance.  

One question to answer now is who goes to the lead?  We know Super SAver has early gas and used to be a pure frontrunner.  However, having rated so well in the Derby, would Borel/Pletcher now send him to the lead to cut the fractions?  Does this make for a very slow pace and compromise the closers, as we get a congested field and lots of ground loss on the turns for those rallying late?  

Funny/ironic thing to me as I look at Super Saver heading into the Preakness.  I had a negative view on this horse before the Derby (about 100 posts on this board prove that....).  Coming into the Preakness, one of two things is going to happen IMO.

1.  He moved up on the wet track and at 2-1 is a solid \"bet against\".

2.  He is an improving horse and is the most likely Triple Crown winner we have seen in the past 10 years or so.  Did I really say that?  Yes.  He has several things going for him that others Derby winners didn\'t have.  He had only 2 preps coming into the Derby, so is lightly raced this year.  He has only improved 1 point off his 2 year old top, so assuming he can win the Preakness with a \"pair up\" type line, he has a very good chance of not being \"over the top\" in the Belmont.  (at least \"very good\" relative to others who had big move ups and more races in a shorter period of time).  And he is facing a pretty slow bunch of horses in the Preakness and likely again in the Belmont.  

I am going to stick with betting the Preakness as if the wet track moved up Super Saver, but I may save with a bet at 7-1 on \"yes\" we will have a Triple Crown winner this year.........

[streetbull]

On my buddy\'s energy numbers, SuperSaver ran back to his two year old line at Churchill, adjusted for age development from 2 to 3.  Besides on Sartin program, he own the first call matchup and was a two tick slowdown on Jim Bradshaw\'s matchup principles.  Super ran sustain so this horse can convert to an early running style at will.   Pletcher did a great training job getting this horse to peak at the right  time with a huge assist from Borel\'s superb ride around CD...IMHO, I think thank Make Music to Me has a huge shot in the Belmont with his tactical speed and superb closing ability unlike Ice Box who is a pure late closer who is dependent on a fast pace meltdown....which will be non_existent in the Belmont...

[ROBERT49]

i think FD goes to the lead, followed closely by JB. then the legit horses fall in behind them-like SS and the others. pace gets slower by the day. let\'s hope for no more drop outs.

[Michael D.]

I see an average pace here. Jackson Bend should be running early, and YT won\'t be too far off. Both SS and Cara should break running as well. The 10 and 11 also have speed, but they might be forced to tuck in.

I don\'t like horses on two weeks vs better rested foes, and SS is coming off two grueling efforts. he could run a mile and struggle. the overall sheet, however, is strong, and SS appears to have come out of the Derby in good shape. right running style for the track, as the switch from a tiring 10f to the 1 3/16 Pim trip could lead to a new top. just don\'t want to bet against the best horse.

Caracortado - not very big, and not really bred to get the distance. most of these runners don\'t appear to want more than 1 1/16 though, and Car might have a bit of Maria\'s Mon toughness that we haven\'t seen yet. \'5\' second out at two and a pair of 3.5\'s over the demanding SA strip. trouble last, and he comes in with perfect timing off a series of good works. should get a good stalking trip with the fine tactical speed. a run in the 1-2 range puts him close. 10-1 ml, but most of these 20 and 30-1 shots won\'t be 20 and 30-1.


Use Super Saver and Caracortado.

[alm]

If Lukas can get Northern Giant going at the start, I think we can be sure this one will be used as hard as possible.  Gomez has no choice but to look for a Borel type ride with Dublin and needs the help up front.

[nyc1347]

streetbull Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On my buddy\'s energy numbers, SuperSaver ran back
> to his two year old line at Churchill, adjusted
> for age development from 2 to 3.  Besides on
> Sartin program, he own the first call matchup and
> was a two tick slowdown on Jim Bradshaw\'s matchup
> principles.  Super ran sustain so this horse can
> convert to an early running style at will.  
> Pletcher did a great training job getting this
> horse to peak at the right  time with a huge
> assist from Borel\'s superb ride around CD...IMHO,
> I think thank Make Music to Me has a huge shot in
> the Belmont with his tactical speed and superb
> closing ability unlike Ice Box who is a pure late
> closer who is dependent on a fast pace
> meltdown....which will be non_existent in the
> Belmont...


Now that Ice Box has your \"knock knock\" pattern play, if he enters the Belmont along with Make Music for Me, are you changing your opinion to Ice Box?

[streetbull]

Please do not assume that I am basing a pattern recognition on TG\'s numbers...it is based on energy numbers.... but I learned a long time ago to have an open mind to learn from all sources....Take Care...

[nyc1347]

yea u too man.. just assumed this being the Thorograph Message Board that your analysis had something to do with.. Thorograph.