Lets run em doooooooooooown
1 - mr gruff - spent most of his time downhill turf and has improved but runs the mile course for the first time. i dont like that too much as we have no clue how he will run. Experimenting is a no no when you wager a horse imo and 7-2 ML doesnt do it for me off two top efforts.
2 - victors cry - nice race last out but i would think a reaction is more likely than not here. even a pair wouldnt be good enough so il pass to win but maybe a use underneath as a pair may be able to get him in the money at huge odds.
3 - gallant son - 3 top races and BI last out.. cant like that too much. id expect some kind of reaction for this race.
4 - global hunter - has always come out nice with rest and ran the best races of his life the end of last year. got well deserved rest and should be primed to go jumping right into a stakes race!
5 - golden balls - too slow and pattern looks backwards
6 - noble court - has gone backwards from his sept top effort no reason to think he will go forward that much here
7 - Blue Chagall - another that has moved backwards and has been consistently too slow this year to make any impact for this race.
8 - karelian - has 2 huge efforts and ships out west. arnold failed the last time he shipped to HOL and at 3-1 i would take a shot saying this one doesnt run another 0 effort. Also bore out at TAM even though he went forward again.. something doesnt sit right w me and il say he bounces off that tremendous effort last out... i mean a 0 is HUGE! Bounce sticks out more than anything.
9 - tangled tango - off the shelf and his best effort wouldnt do it here.. il pass.
10 - Compari - nothing really wrong with him other than hes running 3s at his best and hes 5-2 ML. That alone doesnt make sense and is clearly an underlay this race.
Overall - Compari is an underlay as a fave and the 2 other faves look like they can go backwards off their last efforts. im expecting a very nice effort with global hunter off the shelf. Hes faster than many of these, will get a ground saving trip, has proven to fire off a layoff and my confidence is at %100 with him according to his thorograph pattern and numbers compared to the field. The trainer throwing him right into a 300k stakes race is a great look too. 6-1 ML is great overlay odds compared to his chances in here imo.. good luck to you all.
