Somebody try to talk me off of Malibu Prayer in the Ladies' Classic

[ColonelShillito]

Forgive me for being a novice, but I\'ve been trying to handicap 1-2 races per night when the Pre-Entries came out.  Last night was the Ladies\' Classic for me, immediately following the Saints-Steelers game.

I recall Malibu Prayer as a need the lead type, especially last year when she set ridiculous fractions in a the one-turn mile Chilukki Stakes last year at Churchill.  Apparently, Pletcher has gotten her to relax somewhat this year and she\'s turned into a legitimate two-turn horse.  

It appears to me that with the lack of speed in the race that Malibu Prayer could be the recipient of a 1w1w trip in the Ladies\' Classic, obviously depending on post position and TAP\'s intent with Life At Ten.  Malibu has thrown some -1\'s out there in her past few.  

I\'m forming the idea that Malibu gets the rail, saves ground, runs one more -1 and wins this. Methinks Life At Ten regresses off of her last in the Beldame.  Blind Luck loses ground on the 2nd turn and comes up short while still running a negative #.  Havre De Grace picks up weight off her last.  Acoma bounces.

Will the ThoroGraph vets please put me on the right track here?  As of Monday afternoon, she\'s my single in the Pick 4.

[colin12]

I don\'t see why anyone wants to talk you off that pick. Just as fast if not faster than many others and not the favorite. When I first started reading the sheets, that is what we always looked for. I will say that a single seems a bit aggressive, as many are just as fast. Good luck she will be on my tickets as well.

[phil23]

And Pletcher has clearly targeted this race for her, as she\'s been off for two months.  

It\'s funny actually.  She\'s 15:1 right now but if she had simply finished 1 position better in her last race, she\'d probably be the 2nd choice.

[jbelfior]

Why would anyone want to talk you off of this pick?

Mott already said that UB would be tracking and I believe LAT will do likewise. Speed of the race appears to be  MP and Acting Happy. If they settle into a :24 and : 48 rhythm then  you\'re looking good with a filly that wired in much quicker at Saratoga.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Colonel,

Would be willing to bet this is TGJB\'s key in the seminar.  

That said, if you want to be talked off of her, I will try to help.  Her figure at Saratoga was earned on an extreme speed biased course, where three 1 1/8 races went wire to wire that day/weekend.  Nothing got caught at routes.  The two good figures surrounding that figure are from Monmouth, the same circuit that Bruce Levine hit at 48% with last year.  Any time she stepped up to face top fillies in the past, she couldn\'t do it.  I also don\'t think she wants any part of 1 1/8, on a fair track.

This could be one of those for me that Covello talked about in a different thread, where I am kicking myself later, because she is the fastest horse in the race, not near the favorite and I won\'t be betting her, but I have to let her beat me.