Boo Hoo, speed's too giant!

[miff]

Check out below and Hollendorfers DRF comments after Rags HOTY year Blind Luck fails to run down Always a Princess in a pedestrian last 5/16ths of 32.4 seconds.  

Santa Anita Plans to Adjust Track Composition


Santa Anita’s track maintenance team plans to adjust the composition of the main track Jan. 18 to bring it back to the mix of sand, clay, and silt that it was before Southern California received several rainstorms in late December. Officials will be meeting with horsemen regarding the addition of sand to the surface.

“The racetrack may have changed during periods of heavy rain, and we want to get it right back to where we started,” said George Haines, president of Santa Anita.

Michael DePew, a soil scientist who regularly works with Santa Anita, is analyzing track samples, Haines said, in order to advise track superintendent Richard Tedesco on the types of material and how much should be added.

Santa Anita replaced its synthetic track last fall with a dirt surface. While initial reviews of the new track have generally been positive, it has played extremely fast and three track records have been broken since the meet began Dec. 26.

“We recognize that the fast times are something we’d like to address,” said Haines, “but safety comes first. We want to make sure that the track is put back in an order that it was designed to be. We are working closely with the horsemen on this.”

Haines will meet with the California Thoroughbred Trainers Jan. 17 regarding the maintenance schedule. The track will conduct racing that day because of the Martin Luther King holiday. Jan. 18 is a regular dark day, at which time the maintenance can be performed. Racing is scheduled to resume Jan. 20.

“On Tuesday after training, we’re planning to add sand to the racetrack after discussion with the horsemen,” said Haines. “We’re still analyzing how much we will have to add. We’re going to blend that sand into the racing surface.”

The sand will be blended into the top six inches of the surface, Haines said. It will then be leveled out and prepared again for racing and training.

[marcus]

Hi miff , What do you think - should I hold my breath ? I\'ve been waiting to determine whether there is an \"acclimation curve \" for the horses given the specific track/racing conditions at SA .  It doesn\'t sound like any modifications to the base of the racing surface are being discussed by track management . ..

[P-Dub]

Mike,

Its not Boo Hoo. The speed is ridiculous there, no one can dispute that. She may not have been at her best, and Hollendorfer did say \"My filly got beat today\".  He was just commenting on the ridiculous speed bias.

[phugley]

Some observations on physics and the new Santa Anita dirt track  --
>
>
>Physics says force increases as an exponential (actually the square)
>of velocity [ i.e.,  f = mass*(velocity squared) ].
>
>The faster times we\'re seeing at Santa Anita now, mean more
>multiples of the force (see physics summary below).
>
>Could this possibly mean it will lead to more injuries?
>
>The new 7 furlong record the other day at Santa Anita was 1:19 and change.
>
>According to the Thoroughbred Times Racing Almanac (master racing
>journalist Don Clippinger\'s creation), Spectacular Bid\'s record was
>1:20, and the fastest time in 2007 on the new synthetic was 1:20.37.
>The fastest 7f time on the old dirt track that year was 1:21.11 by
>Latent Heat.
>
>  The average force already on a Thoroughbred racehorse leg at 12
> secs per furlong (55 ft per sec) is roughly describable by  force
> =  mass (1,000 lbs) times velocity (55 ft/sec) squared.  (see Nat\'l
> Science Foundation racetrack force plate studies by Kingsbury in the Journal of Biomechanics]
>.
>[note --  the foreleg retracts - goes backwards, before hitting the
>ground so the leg velocity is less at impact than the main inertial
>mass velocity. On the other hand, the faster they go, the more
>extended they are,  and the less foreleg retraction before impact.
>The rear legs really don\'t have that sort of retraction.]
>
>  Changing from about 1:22 for seven furlongs to 1:19 is a change
> of  3 seconds overall, or probably at least 1 sec per furlong of
> velocity somewhere in the race.
>
>Go 1 second per furlong faster and the overall velocity is about 5
>ft/sec faster. So, for example, if you go 1 sec per furlong faster,
>instead of a velocity of 55 ft/sec, you\'d have 60 ft per second. Put
>that into the force equation above. 55 squared is 3,025 times the
>mass = force.  60 squared is 3,600 times the mass = force.
>That is 575 times more units of force possible.
>
>Yes, Santa Anita\'s new track could conceivably now be improved in
>some ways in that it may be \"softer\", or springier, or match the
>spring constant of a horse\'s leg better than expected, and have
>fewer inconsistencies in depth and composition and drainage ( future
>drop hammer tests and ground penetrating radar studies from the
>Jockey Club\'s track safety initiative will help determine these
>things).  

\"TUNED\"TRACKS FOR THE SPRING CONSTANT OF THE SURFACE CAN BE FASTER and SAFER FOPR HUMANS, BUT TO DO THAT YOU NEED A TON OF DATA ON THE LOCOMOTION VARIABLES, AND OUR COMPANY IS THE ONLY ONE TO HAVE THOSE DATA BASES, AND NO ONE ASKED US.

 Furthermore, good athletes there may compensate in the
>velocity of their foreleg retraction somewhat,
>
>but, --  still, --   more potential force in mega units, is still just that.
>

[sighthound]

I wouldn\'t see why they would want to modify, or should even touch, a newly-installed base, unless they have drainage concerns - which shouldn\'t exist in a brand-new, from scratch, track.

Adding more sand should speed it up, but they can adjust that.  If they\'ve lost the sand due to the monsoons they\'ve had, and the trainers are complaining, sounds like they are getting too many injuries due to the preponderance of clay remaining.

Always a good source of information for the curious:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed

Search in PubMed  for  [sorry, edited here] \"equine racetrack force\"

[sighthound]

>> Physics says force increases as an exponential (actually the square)
>> of velocity [ i.e., f = mass*(velocity squared) ].

I would caution that one has to incorporate a slippage constant (force on the x and y axis) when determining ground force reaction of horse hoof on a particular forceplate (or particular track surface)

[miff]

Paul,

He also inferred that he may not race there in future. BL changed leads about 3-4 times down the lane, was swerving and did not have her normal strong run, otherwise she\'d have won.Maybe that surface was stinging her or she\'s finally over the top.

Interesting comments from RAGS that BL is likely to improve this year because of her spacing last year. I\'ve not heard a more clueless comment in 40 years of being around horses.So just space them 5-6 weeks at 3 and they\'ll improve the next year, BRILLIANT!!


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

At this point I think it might be a good idea to look at what was actually, um, written:



by Bob Ehalt

The battle for Horse of the Year seems to be coming down to the finish line much like the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) did.

It’s Zenyatta and Blame, or Blame and Zenyatta, depending on your preference.

Yet if the criteria for a Horse of the Year award was based solely on speed, then there would be a much different path to racing’s ultimate prize—one that mirrors last year’s scenario.

In choosing the fastest horse of 2010, Len Friedman, a partner with Ragozin Thoroughbred Data, tossed out both Zenyatta and Blame and crowned the three-year-old filly Blind Luck as the “Sheets” Horse of the Year.

In Friedman’s eyes, Blind Luck had the best body of work in 2010, with a longer and faster string of races than Zenyatta and Blame.

“On her best day, Blind Luck could have beaten Zenyatta or Blame,” Friedman said. “She ran nine times and seven of her numbers were outstanding.”

Blind Luck’s best day came in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes (G2) when she posted her career-best Ragozin figure of a minus-1/4. Neither Blame nor Zenyatta could crack a 1 1/4. Blind Luck also had a 1 in the Delaware Oaks (G2), and her season was described by Friedman as “the second-best year ever by a three-year-old filly.”

The best season by a three-year-old filly was Rachel Alexandra’s 2009 campaign. As it turned out, Rachel Alexandra never regained her brilliance at four, but Friedman believes Blind Luck is better positioned to improve at four than last year’s Horse of the Year.

“Blind Luck improved more gradually at three than Rachel Alexandra and she was not pushed as hard by running on short rest like Rachel was. They squeezed the lemon dry in Rachel Alexandra’s case and it showed this year [when she won just two of five races]. Blind Luck had much better timing between her races and could continue to improve,” Friedman said.

Friedman did select Zenyatta, who had a season best 1¼ in the Vanity Handicap (G1), as the best older female, even though her figures slipped a bit from her 2009 slate. Nevertheless, with 19 wins from 20 career starts and a series of powerful figures over the last three years, Friedman rated Zenyatta as one of the two or three best females of all time.

Blame was not as fortunate, as Quality Road earned as the nod as the fastest older male with two minus-1s, a 3/4, and a 1 1/2. Blame, with a 1 1/2 in the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) and a 2 in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) as one of two 2s this year, was second.

Besides Blind Luck, Friedman’s three Horse of the Year finalists included Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) winner Goldikova (Ire), who had a brilliant minus-1/2 in her lone U.S. start and was a lopsided choice as the top turf female, and the two-year-old sensation, Uncle Mo.

Uncle Mo was labeled by Friedman as the fastest two-year-old he’s ever seen, based on a 1 1/4 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and a 4 ½ and 2 ½ in his two other races.

“I can recall other numbers faster than the 1 1/4 by a two-year-old, but not three numbers like that. He’s in a class by himself. He’s a very special horse,” Friedman said.

Elsewhere, Friedman gave the two-year-old filly crown to Kathmanblu off a 6 3/4 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2) and an 8 in the Golden Rod Stakes (G2) on dirt. Awesome Feather, the favorite to be named the division’s Eclipse Award champion, posted only a 9 ¼ in winning the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

“It was a very strong year for two-year-old colts, and conversely it was a weak year for two-year-old fillies,” Friedman said.

The leading three-year-old colt was Lookin At Lucky, with a top of 1 ¼ in the Indiana Derby (G2), who narrowly edged Friend or Foe (three 3s) and Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) runner-up Morning Line (a 2-4-3 in his last three races).

Among males, the standouts were Majesticperfection (2 0s and 2 2s), older sprinter; Paco Boy (Ire) (a 1 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile), older turf; Rule by Night (2 1s), three-year-old sprinter; Sidney’s Candy (a few 4s), three-year-old turf.

The top females also included: Dubai Majesty (a 1 in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint [G1]), older sprinter; Nicole H (2 3s), three-year-old sprinter; and Harmonious (a top of 4), three-year-old turf.

Bob Ehalt is a Connecticut-based correspondent for Thoroughbred Times

[miff]

\"Blind Luck had much better timing between her races and could continue to improve,” Friedman said.


....duh!

[marcus]

I applaud So Cal for the return to a dirt racing surface and the continued efforts to improve the conditions  .

Having said that , the addition or introduction of new material into the track which in essence ultimately speeds things up seems counter intuitive imo  ...

[ajkreider]

A bit picky, but can\'t say much for the physics here.  Force increases as velocity does?  That would be acceleration.  Of course, the higher the starting velocity, the greater the negative acceleration (if time is constant).

And it\'s misleading too.  575 times more units of force?  No, 575 more units of force.  As a percentage increase in the example is about 20%, which ain\'t nothing, but not 575 times units of force.  

And, how does one conclude that going from 1:22 to 1:19 for 7F calculates out to one second per furlong?  3 seconds over 7f is, oh, I don\'t know, 3/7ths of a second per furlong.  So, the force figures are even lower.

Unless I\'m missing something.

[miff]

Poor Jerry H, his deep one run closers are ineffective at Santa. Tear that dirt crap up and put back a nice rug!Maybe if Rags HOTY Blind Luck had been able to run the last 5/16ths in 32 seconds, he wouldn\'t be bitching.

DRF:
Hollendorfer looking out of town for Blind Luck, Dakota Phone
By Steve Andersen


Blind Luck could ship out of Santa Anita for her next start, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said. ARCADIA, Calif. – Blind Luck and Dakota Phone, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer’s leading horses, may not start again at the Santa Anita winter-spring meeting.

Frustrated by what he perceives as the speed-biased nature of the track’s sand-and-clay surface, Hollendorfer said he may not start Blind Luck again at the Santa Anita meet after she was second in the Grade 2 El Encino Stakes on Sunday, her first start since a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic at Churchill Downs in November.

“I’ve got to take a wait-and-see approach,” he said Monday from Miami, where he was attending the Eclipse Awards. “She came out of the race perfect. She jogged perfect this morning.”

After Sunday’s race, where Blind Luck finished 3 1/2 lengths behind Always a Princess, Hollendorfer expressed frustration about the track, saying, “We may have to do something else. If the track stays the same way, I don’t think we’ll run here.”

Blind Luck has won 9 of 16 starts and $2,418,712.

Dakota Phone, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November, may be sent to Golden Gate Fields to train on the Tapeta Footings synthetic surface there in advance of a potential trip to Dubai in late March, Hollendorfer said. Meydan Racecourse in Dubai has a Tapeta surface.

Hollendorfer said that Dakota Phone has been nominated to two races in Dubai – the Godolphin Mile and the Dubai World Cup over 1 1/4 miles.

Dakota Phone has made two starts since the BC Dirt Mile, finishing fifth in the Native Diver Handicap at Hollywood Park on Dec. 4 and fourth in the San Pasqual Handicap here Jan. 8.

“It’s hard to figure out what we’re going to do,” Hollendorfer said.

Hollendorfer mentioned the possibility of shifting Dakota Phone to turf, a surface over which the 6-year-old gelding has not started since finishing second in an allowance race at Hollywood Park last June.

Santa Anita added sand to the surface last weekend and early this week, replacing sand washed away during rainstorms in late December and early January.

Clubhouse Ride may go out of town

[TGJB]

Miff-- I thought you were a bias guy, no?

[miff]

Miff--I thought you were a bias guy,no?


JB,

Totally,speed biased tracks create good betting opportunities,imo.
I\'m just tired of trainer excuses.Tracks too hard,too soft,favors closers, speed biased, etc.

Mike

[sighthound]

Everyone knows dirt tracks differ and play to different qualities.  Do we look at Derby contenders the same, if they come from Oak Lawn and Gulfstream?  

If your horse would benefit by being at a track more suitable to it\'s running style, go for it.  Don\'t whine about it.