The Bluegrass

[APny]

Here\'s my take on the field.  What\'s yours?

Newsdad - Too slow and no reason to expect an explosion on the synth.  Mott has been awful.

King Congie - The sentimental pick considering the story behind him. Has been given time since his last and has been pointed to this.  I like his chances of improving enough to get into the exacta.  Especially if he\'s matured and can avoid bearing out like he did in his last two.

Santiva - Exploded at FG last time out to run the fastest figure out of anyone in this race.  It was on dirt but this horse is already proven on the synth.  The last time he exploded..he paired next time out.  Even a couple point regression gets him in the winners circle.  

Joes Blazing Aaron -  Key trainer switch but I still can\'t imagine this horse making a big enough jump to be competitive.

Brilliant Speed - Has managed to improve in every race.  Has had time since last and could jump up.  A borderline contender.

Sensational Slam - I don\'t bet horses off huge tops like this.  Especially considering he\'s going a route of ground for the first time and is bred more to sprint.  I\'ll pass.

Twinspired - Maker looking for his second consecutive Blue Grass win.  This horse has run faster on synthetic than everyone else and looks like he may be cycling forward.  At 12-1 morning line, he seems to be the value.

Wilcox Inn -  Second off the layoff which is a good thing.  Has never run fast enough which is a bad thing. I don\'t see any reason to think he\'ll explode.

Wilkinson - Not sure why I hear a lot about this horse when it comes to Derby talk.  He\'s slow.  Another who is eligible to improve but will it be enough?  At 6-1 m/l he doesn\'t seem worth it to me.

Praetereo - Fresh off a maiden win on the dirt for TAP at GP.  No thanks.

Crimson China - Big jump up for this one in last.  I can\'t see another forward move which means he\'s vying for a minor award.

Queensplatekitten - He\'s terribly slow on the sheets.  Has a nice line but hate the post and have no reason to believe he will jump up enough to get in the exacta.

Overview:  Twinspired broke his maiden over this course and looks to be ready to run another big figure.  He\'s the play anywhere near the morning line for a trainer who has had success in this race.  Santiva is the morning line favorite, deservedly so. He scares me.  King Congie and Brilliant Speed look to be the other logical contenders. I\'d use those 4 in the multi-race bets.

[TreadHead]

Thanks for the thoughts, I think the mistake people make at Keeneland, and why you see so many people posting negative thoughts about it, is that they place too much stock in patterns and dont account for the fact that many horses are either trying poly for the first time or have not been on it in some time.  Yes, turf and poly play similarly, but horses do not always has similar performances over the 2 surfaces, and large jump ups are still possible, especially at this age.

Last year Wilcox Inn was only a length behind Santiva on this same track.  Has Santiva progressed more than Wilcox Inn since last year?  Perhaps, but it couldn\'t be a complete shock if he won.

With the MMMile double available, I love the 3 and 7 today to potentially throw a big upset and am still trying to figure out who to use in the 2nd leg.  Won\'t hit the all button, but it might be close.

[RICH]

Who cares? a past derby prep ruined. A complete sham

[big18741]

Mott woke up with two winners today and Newsdad(20-1 ML) worked good over the strip on Sunday.

[Michael D.]

Good luck Ap.

Willcox Inn ran right with the big fave here last year. 2 decent runs going shorter since, last against a strong allowance group. 2nd dam Aletta Maria produced Cetewayo and Dynaforce. Gets a pretty good one-run rider. Nice spot for a new top. And Newsdad draws well, and is bred for the 9f over the poly. Another eligible to run a new top.

Key Willcox (10-1), use Newsdad (20-1).

[big18741]

Torn between both of those slower pair horses but ended up keying Newsdad at the anticipated longer price.Messed around with Willcox as a saver.

Newsdad worked over the surface like he could move up-trip and traffic the issue.

Michael D with the sensational call on Stately Victor in last years edition.

                           Good Luck

[miff]

....what garbage!!

[Michael D.]

AP,

Outstanding. A 6k tri going 4 deep.

Hope you crushed this one.

[Lost Cause]

Good Stuff AP!!!  I personally gave up on synth and for good reason.  There is no way I would have came up with what you did there.
Nicely done..

[Michael D.]

big, good run from Newsd at 18-1.

[TGAB]

Good job APny. Hope you cashed.

[APny]

Thanks guys....I cashed but that nose photo cost me.  Some of the other races had me scratching my head...but you only have to be right once on these big days!