Santiva

[sekrah]

Just watched Bluegrass again.  I can\'t ever remember seeing a horse blocked in for an entire race the way Santiva was (he was also squeezed at the start).   The rail cracked open for a second or two in the stretch, but LeParoux didn\'t have the stones to take it (paging Mr. Borel).   Draw a nice thick line through that race and he looks awfully good to me.

And remember this was the horse that lost the Risen Star by 1 1/2 length to Mucho Macho Man, while spotting him 6 pounds and 1 path both turns.  And... Already has a graded stakes win over the Churchill dirt.

Needless to say, he will be pretty high in my tickets on May 7th at a likely 40-1+ tag (assuming he qualifies on earnings of course).  How high?  I\'m unsure yet.  We\'ll see how he works leading into it.  Giant\'s Causeway\'s have done diddly so far in the Triple Crown.

[toppled]

His pattern concerns me.  He runs in the mid 7s as a 2yo, has a 6 point new top, disappears for 2 months & I\'m guessing has a huge regression on his sheet in the Blue Grass.  To me, that 1.5 looks like a knockout effort, sort of like Talkin Man\'s 1995 Gotham. Now Talkin Man came back & won the Wood, but was pretty much done after his Gotham.
By the way, I look at Santiva\'s sheet & 1st jump up different than most.  His 1st jump from his 15.25 to 7.75 wasn\'t as big as it looks.  That 15.25 was in a race that for whatever reason came up slow on paper (on all speed #s I\'ve seen), but big on the track-It was a key race where several horses ran much faster in their next race.  The forward move, in retrospect, based on the way horses came out of that race wasn\'t the jump up it looks like on paper.

[jbelfior]

Sekrah:

Horses down inside always appear as if they have nowhere to go, especially when everyone in front of them is moving faster.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Ill-bred]

Head-on replay confirms he had nowhere to go in the Blue Grass. Plus very rank early in the race. It\'s a toss.

[pizzalove]

Santiva could have had no one in front of him and been running on a moving walkway like in the airport and he would not of gotten in the money.  He shouldnt even run in the derby.

[alydar61]

Liked Santiva going in, and didn\'t like the selection of this race. Agree completely. He just got a non-effort that was a decent work. Now he can enter the Derby ready to fire a BIG top. This on a track he\'s already won on. He should be at least 30-1, or more! I don\'t think any of the others can match that value.

[sekrah]

Agreed alydar.  I\'m not speaking any more on this topic .

[big18741]

If I toss his Bluegrass I\'m still not looking for a big new top in the Derby.

I could play him for a pair of the Risen Star which makes him competitive if he isn\'t too wide.He jumped up pretty good there off a vacation-tough for me to expect further improvement in the Derby.Could see him hitting the board with a lucky trip though.

[sekrah]

Solid choice.

[BitPlayer]

I just don\'t get how they\'re managing this horse.  The break between the Risen Star and the Blue Grass and the final prep on poly make some sense to me, but the musical jockeys does not? Why did they bring in Smith for one ride?  Did Smith opt off?  Why did they reach out for Leparoux in the Blue Grass, knowing that he would be riding Dialed In in the Derby?

[bstaubs22]

I agree that this a very strange situation. I have to think something minor happened after the Risen Star figuring a couple days after the race Eddie said they wanted to come back in the La. Derby. As for Mike Smith, I have thought maybe he is waiting to see if Jaycito is going to come and maybe he thinks that this horse has a better shot. Could be that he also may be thinking about Comma to the Top.