Oaks Draw

[sekrah]

1. Joyful Victory, M. Smith, 5-2

2. Lilacs and Lace, J. Castellano, 12-1

3. Summer Soiree, G.Saez, 5-1

4. Kathmanblu, J. Leparoux, 4-1

5. Suave Voir Faire, M. Mena, 50-1

6. Zazu, J. Rosario, 4-1

7. Her Smile, G. Gomez, 20-1

8. Bouquet Booth, R. Albarado, 20-1

9. Daisy Devine, J. Graham, 20-1

10. Street Storm, S. Bridgmohan, 50-1

11. Holy Heavens, K. Desormeaux, 50-1

12. Plum Pretty, M. Garcia, 5-1

13. St. John’s River, R. Napravnik, 30-1



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Good, Wasn\'t thrilled with Joyful Victory\'s sheet, this will really seal the deal for me to move her to the bottom of the exotics.

Looking like Kathmanblu/Zazu will be near the top of my tickets.

As far as verticals go, I think this is a spectacular race.  I\'m looking at Daisy Devine, Bouquet Booth, St. John\'s River, Street Storm to make forward moves here and be very competitive.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

What specifically don\'t you like about Joyful Victory\'s pattern?

Solid 2 year old top, right back to it first time out at 3, then a little 1 point forward move.  

My read would be very likely to move forward and at a minimum a pair up.  No way I read bounce.

I want to try and beat her as the favorite, but can\'t see her running a bad race.  I think Zazu can and will beat her, but not because JV doesn\'t have a good pattern coming into the race.

[sekrah]

I don\'t read a bounce.  I see a 5% top, 30% pair, 50% off, 5% X.  

I was expecting a pair in the Breeders Cup, To run 1.25 point worse tells me that 4 did a number on her. And considering that was over the same track she\'s about to run over, that does not give me confidence here that she\'s about to run a new top here after a 3 with 4 weeks rest.

Tapit offspring are early developers, alot of them have run their best digits by now and don\'t get a whole of a hell lot better.    She\'s just not lighting my fire at 5/2.

I love Kathmanblu not reacting to her top & pairs despite the surface changes, she has a top on this surface and has been looking very good this week according to Welsch.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

Reading patterns is an individual thing, not sure there is a \"right\" or \"wrong\".

That said, you are looking at percentages based on a 3 race pattern, but one of those races was part of a 2 year old campaign and there was a significant freshening and change of trainer from that point.  I would not be reading the BC race as part of her current pattern.

I think you start reading the horse\'s pattern with this year\'s races.  And like I said, first time out a pairup is VERY healthy, and then a 1 point forward move is also a healthy start.  She moves forward another point and saves ground into the first turn, from the rail, and she is going to be a legitimate favorite and tough to beat.  

As for workouts, do yourself a favor and pull down both Kathmanblu and Joyful Victory\'s workouts from the internet.  I have almost no eye for horses, workouts, carrying flesh, etc.etc, but even I can tell the difference between these two workouts.  JV was as full of run as a horse can be.  Attacking the ground.

I think Kathmanblu\'s line is much harder to read.  I remember talking to TGAB at Saratoga about these kinds of lines.  When a horse keeps pairing up, again and again, they certainly can eventually move forward, but they are just as likely to move backward.  What makes this race the one that Kathmanblu moves forward in, considering she has paired four times in a row?  To me, the reason I can\'t throw her out is that the pairups are crossing surfaces and I don\'t know what to make of that.  If this line was the same and all races were dirt, I would toss her, relatively confidently.  With both turf and poly in the last 4, tough tough read.

[sekrah]

> As for workouts, do yourself a favor and pull down
> both Kathmanblu and Joyful Victory\'s workouts from
> the internet.  I have almost no eye for horses,
> workouts, carrying flesh, etc.etc, but even I can
> tell the difference between these two workouts.
> JV was as full of run as a horse can be.
> Attacking the ground.

I\'m only going by what Welsch said, he liked Joyful Victory as well, but he thought very highly of Kathmanblu this week.  

Lightning Larry is Bullet Bob\'s cousin.  It\'s not exactly shocking to see one of his charges tearing up the track


 
> I think Kathmanblu\'s line is much harder to read.
> I remember talking to TGAB at Saratoga about these
> kinds of lines.  When a horse keeps pairing up,
> again and again, they certainly can eventually
> move forward, but they are just as likely to move
> backward.  What makes this race the one that
> Kathmanblu moves forward in, considering she has
> paired four times in a row?  To me, the reason I
> can\'t throw her out is that the pairups are
> crossing surfaces and I don\'t know what to make of
> that.

Very strong based on my own experiences.  It\'s one of my favorite lines to look for.

>  If this line was the same and all races
> were dirt, I would toss her, relatively
> confidently.  

I agree, well, I don\'t think I\'d toss her completely, because a 4 is quite competitive here with a good trip, but she definently wouldn\'t be a key if they were all over the same surface.

[mjellish]

For what it\'s worth, my guy at Churchill said JV had the best work of any horse, Derby or Oaks.  I think she is going to really take some beating here.  She\'s already fast enought to win.  She\'s working like a monster, coming off a small forward move, bred to get 1 1/8th, gives every indication that she will at least pair or move forward.  Unless you think she is going freak out, not handle the track, or break in a tizzy and get shuffled back on the rail I don\'t see how she is not the most likely winner.  And I don\'t think I am going to try to beat her, but I\'m not going to bet her at 9/5 or so either.  If she went off at 5/2 I would probably pound her in the Win pool.  Lot\'s of options vertically and horizontally in the exotics though.  If you think Baffert\'s horse is going to bounce there is an opportunity because she will be taking a fair amount of money.

[toppled]

Do you have a guy at Hollywood?  I\'m wondering how that Sunday workout by Zazu, which looks great on paper, looked to an experienced workout watcher.

[mjellish]

She\'s not a big worker.