Hey Jerry

[albany]

Thank you, but I think your assessment is too generous.

A horse can be an overlay at 3-1. In fact, overlays can, and very often do, occur at lower odds. If a horse is 2-1 (as I believe Empire Maker was in his Belmont), but should be even money, then he is a substantial overlay.  A horse at longer odds will pay more, but may not represent better value because  proportionately he may not be a larger overlay (i.e., his actual price may not, in relative terms, be as far removed from his true odds as those of a shorter priced horse). Moreover, his probability of winning, even if based on his true odds valuation, is, by definition, less than the shorter priced overlay. Hence, a longer priced horse, even if a legitimate overlay, does not necessarily have more value than the short priced overlay.

[Footlick]

Gomez is trying to lobby for the Belmont, but I do believe they are leaning to the BC.

[Footlick]

Grinder is the word I would have chosen.  Plodder is a little derogatory for a nice horse.  I\'m not going to say he is a world beater, but he is a nice horse.  Gomez had him too far back for the pace.  He said he didn\'t like the kickback which could have accounted for that, but then he got his head into the race.  O\'Brien said Master of Hounds has a good mind and is competitive.  I think his stretch run showed that.  Gomez couldn\'t find a hole, then jerked the horse to the rail where he closed with good energy.  I don\'t think it was a bad run at all.  O\'Brien likes him for American racing so we will see what path they take. As far as the figure, I would have to hear from Jerry (for all those who have not liked my use of Mr Brown-lol) as to how his trip affected it.  Not disputing your analysis except for \"plodder\".

[jimbo66]

Mr. Footlick,

Yes, you are correct that \"grinder\" is a nicer adjective than \"plodder\".  And I am aware of that, which is why I chose \"plodder\".

I guess this becomes a moot point as the horse is unlikely for the Belmont.  I am not saying the horse had no shot to win the Belmont, but the original statement about anything over 3-1 being a gift was ridiculous IMO.  For that horse to be 3-1, the Preakness result would have to be some random longshot winning, Nehro would have to be scratched for some problem, and almost no viable horses from the Preakness would be moving on.  That is a lot of things to happen.  If they don\'t happen, Master of Hounds is every bit of 10-1.

[Footlick]

I agree.

[albany]

The 3-1 figure was based on my belief that the Belmont field will be small and, more significantly, my assessment that the American competition is both well below average and not suited for the 12 furlong trip.

Obviously, I disagree with your opinion that Master of Hounds is a plodder. He is a true distance horse who admittedly does not possess the quickest turn of foot. It should be noted, however, that he did pass a lot of quicker American horses down the lane.  


All things considered, I am hopeful that you are right that the 3-1 figure is way off the mark. If you are, my bet will be increased.

[miff]

\"however, that he did pass a lot of quicker American horses down the lane\".

Albany.

Does it matter that the ones he passed down the lane were looking for a soft place to lie down??


Mike

[albany]

Mike:

It does matter. In fact, my opinion is based upon the fact that these horses are ill-suited to distance racing.  


The Derby winner may be an exception. However, a Preakness run is not, in  my view, the best way to prepare this horse for the Belmont.


Albany

[Footlick]

So you are implying that he didn\'t close well?  Just wondering.  I thought he had one of the faster last quarters in the Derby.  I could be wrong though.

[miff]

Yes, MOH did but had some of the slowest splits for the first mile.Not sure closing hard after crawling early is as relevant as maybe you guys think, but to each his own.

Good Luck,

Mike

[albany]

Mike:

One of the oldest adages in racing is: \"You go out slow, you come back fast. You go out fast, you come back slow.\" There is no mystery concerning this aspect of the game.

In the case of the Derby, I believe that Master of Hounds was seriously disadvantaged by his early placement since, as I have noted previously, he does not have the quickest turn of foot. Basically, he is a one-paced stayer who needs to be more forwarded placed. I believe he is likely to have that kind of trip in the Belmont.

Albany

[sighthound]

Albany.

Does it matter that the ones he passed down the lane were looking for a soft place to lie down??


Mike

LOL.   But I don\'t care where they are during the race.  I care where they are at the finish.

(I do watch alot of Euro and Aussie racing, so I guess my blood pressure is used to seeing your winning horse 8 lengths back with 1/16 to go, and the jock casually standing up at the line while only a short 1/2 length ahead)

He\'s no world beater, and I can see why he was sent here, but in America he\'ll do very well, I think.