Saturday

[TGJB]

Quite a card, in all respects.

[alm]

Maybe I\'m bleary eyed, but I only see a few possibilities of upsets.

The last 2 P4s in order of preference

Race 7:   1A, 3, 4. 1
Race 8:   5, 7, 1
Race 9:   2, 6, 1, 3
Race 10:  4, 3, 5, 2
Race 11:  9, 12, 10, 6

[Ace]

Where is the analysis?  I\'m trying to buy it.

[alm]

I\'m too old to spend time explaining each race...it\'s mostly about deciding whether any of these are likely to cycle close to their fastest races over the distance and surface...Amen Hallelujah the exception (that\'s mostly a guess, based upon her poly form)...what bothers me mostly about the races I cite is the fact that there don\'t seem to be too many surprises lining up.  I liked Rodman in the Metropolitan because it seemed pretty clear to me that he was going to run back to a big number THAT day.  I don\'t  see anything like that in this sequence of races.

[covelj70]

Alm,

This is why the game is so great, I see it the exact opposite way.  Absolutely not saying I am definitely right or anything, just that when I put my preliminary pick 6 ticket together last night, I left the favorite out of 3 of the legs (and the top 2 choices out of 2 of the legs)

I don\'t like the entry in the True North as D\'Funnybone isn\'t fast enough and This One\'s for Phil has bounced off that big number he ran last time before

I don\'t like Travelling Man or Arch Traveller in the Wody Stephens as Travellin Man seems to be going in the wrong direction and Arch Traveller bounced off his last big number last time

I don\'t like Animal Kingdom or Shackleford in the Belmont because they are running their 3rd race in 5 weeks.

Again, there are a million things I could be wrong about in my analysis.  My post isn\'t to suggest you are wrong and I am right, rather, how 2 people who play the game alot can use the same data and come to completely different conclusions.

That\'s what makes it so cool.

Good luck

[richiebee]

In the Just A Game, I am looking at Much Rejoicing from the Jimmy Toner barn.

Like her dam, 1999 F/M Turf champ Soaring Softly, MR was not tried on the turf
until her 4YO season. In that 4YO season, Soaring Softly won 7 of 8 starts on the
lawn for Toner, including the BC F/M Turf.

MR is 12/1, should have tactical speed, and has an outside post which has
historically not been a disadvantage in mile/mile and a sixteenth races on the
Widener.

MR should go off at at least her ML against more seasoned rivals.

Mott and Juddmonte send out likely post time favorite Aviate. Mott and Juddmonte
won the JAG last year with Proviso. Mott won two other JAGs in the last seven
years, and Juddmonte won two other JAGS with Bobby Frankel (Intercontinental and
Ventura).

[HP]

Exactly what I see covel.  Good luck.  HP

[alm]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Alm,
>
> This is why the game is so great, I see it the
> exact opposite way.  Absolutely not saying I am
> definitely right or anything, just that when I put
> my preliminary pick 6 ticket together last night,
> I left the favorite out of 3 of the legs (and the
> top 2 choices out of 2 of the legs)
>
> I don\'t like the entry in the True North as
> D\'Funnybone isn\'t fast enough and This One\'s for
> Phil has bounced off that big number he ran last
> time before
>
> I don\'t like Travelling Man or Arch Traveller in
> the Wody Stephens as Travellin Man seems to be
> going in the wrong direction and Arch Traveller
> bounced off his last big number last time
>
> I don\'t like Animal Kingdom or Shackleford in the
> Belmont because they are running their 3rd race in
> 5 weeks.
>
> Again, there are a million things I could be wrong
> about in my analysis.  My post isn\'t to suggest
> you are wrong and I am right, rather, how 2 people
> who play the game alot can use the same data and
> come to completely different conclusions.
>
> That\'s what makes it so cool.
>
> Good luck


Yeah, I do look at it differently...no doubt you are right about This Ones For Phil...he has bounced in the past, but for a different trainer and under different circumstances...my personal experience with Tony Dutrow suggests he can bring this horse to a pair-up or an advance from his last start towards its previous top (even though the top was some time ago.)  Plus, he gets to be the controlling speed in here.  He doesn\'t have to do much more than pair in order to win this one.  As for Funnybone, I place him below the 2 others I give a shot, but if they don\'t run to their ability he may be slower than they are, but not that much slower.

Regarding Travelin Man, I can\'t really tell what direction he is going in, but his best is fast enough and when he has the fastest number you can never discount Pletcher.  You may be right about Arch Traveller, but Jerkens knows what you know and he\'s too good a trainer to toss...I really like JJ for a sneaky win here at good odds.  The others just seem too damned slow to handle this top group.

As for AK and Shack, I know you are right...but they are the 2 fastest of this group and you just can\'t ignore them.  I\'ve been following the Triple Crown for 50 years. Lots of horses fail after the first 2 races, but a fair number have gone through the series with strong races...these 2 may be the real deal.  The problem I have with the horses who closed well in the Derby MOH, BS and Santiva is just that, they closed well...they didn\'t threaten.  It\'s an old fashioned bias of mine.

[covelj70]

Alm,

Good good stuff, thanks for the thoughts.

I hope you are right about JJ\'s Lucky Train.

I have a Silver Train yearling I am trying to sell at the Keenland September sale (half to archarcharch) so I need Silver Train to get all of the attention he can before then!!!!

[alm]

I know the feeling...got lucky last year selling a yearling whose half brother won his 4th straight just before the OBS sale I had him in.  He not only won, but it was a stakes race and he missed the track record by a fraction.....wooo hooo!!!!

By the way, the aforementioned older brother finished 3rd in This One\'s For Phil\'s last race...Phil\'s first for T.Dutrow.  Made me notice Phil.