Breeders Cup workouts

[covelj70]

I raised this point before the Derby/Oaks on this board and even though it didn\'t get me on the right Derby horse, it did help me eliminate some of the \"wrong\" ones.

Having a work over the Churchill sruface is very important.  Horses that are doing all of their prep work at different tracks that try to ship into CD right before the race are at a big disadvantage.

The reason is that the Churchill surface can be very deep and tiring, right now even more so than usual according to people who are there.  It was definitely that way leading up to the Derby.

Alot of horsemen commented during the weeks before the Derby that the longer horses had on the track, the better they looked.

For example, Plum Prettty\'s first breeze at Churchill was very average but her 2nd breeze was very strong.  There were plenty of other examples of this as well (i.e. Mucho Macho Man).

Think back to the Oaks/Derby.  Plum Pretty had several breezes over the track, Animal Kingdom breezed over the track.  Nehro and MMM had several breezes over the track.  Generally speaking, the horses that didn\'t breeze over the track didn\'t run as well that weekend (i.e. Zazu).

This isn\'t to say that no horse doing their prep work over another track will win any of the BC races but, on the margin, I will be favroing horses that have had at least one work over the surface.  

looking forward to seeing the pre-entries

[JR]

What do you think about the chances of those prepping at Keeneland over what has been a super fast and, I think, damaging surface?

[covelj70]

JR,

I don\'t like horses prepping at Keenland for the BC, this year especially.  As we can all see from the raw times and the records being broken at Keenland its a very quick surface which is the exact opposite of what Chruchill usually is and what I understand it to be again right now (not there myself yet).

I don\'t think a horse prepping at Keenland is getting as fit as a horse training at the deep and tiring CD track right now.  There have been periods in the past when the Keenland surface was very tiring and it did make a horse more fit but I don\'t think that\'s the case right now at Keenland.  

Although I don\'t believe it\'s the case right now at Keenland/CD, in general, I think you need to be more fit to run on the average synthetic track than the average dirt track and that\'s always been my explanation for why you see the first time syntehtic to dirt jumps in the figures.  I have always equated it having ankle weights taken off.  The firt time you run without them (i.e. first time dirt), you run a big number but that can be a one time phenomena.  I mentioned the story on the board years ago of how I threw the shotput as a kid.  I trained with a heavier weight for most of the preseason and the first time I threw the lighter weight in practice, I threw what would have been a record distance but I was never able to replicate that distance again.  Maybe because I am a lame choker when it comes to a competition (this was always my Dad\'s explanation) or maybe my body just quickly adjusted to the lighter weight. I think it\'s logical that it\'s the same with alot of the first time synthetic to dirt horses.

Anyway, the point of this ridiculous rambling message is that I am going to lean toward horses that have trained over CD for the last few weeks and lean away from the horses at Keenland.  The big filly is one that I am thinking about using in the classic but I like both her figures and the Flat Out\'s but I am leaning in the direction of Flat Out given that he\'s training (apparently very well) over CD and the filly is up at Keenland.

I am likely guarenteeing a BC sweeep of horses training away from CD with all of this nonsense but until we get the figures tomorrow, this is what I am left to talk about....lol

[JR]

I suspect the same and have the same bias in favor of training on tiring surfaces vs fast ones. Thanks.

[big18741]

Turallure working on the grass at Keeneland looks pretty good.

Penciled him in for a pair up at Woodbine.If so he could move forward here and very dangerous with some good racing luck.Looks like a healthy four year old with some upside and a strong late kick,and not one of the favorites.

[Silver Charm]

Cove, will you be at Breeders Cup??

[covelj70]

absolutely, with bells on, can\'t wait to have another drink with you Silver!

[streetbull]

Covelj70 posted:

     \"Although I don\'t believe it\'s the case right now at Keenland/CD, in general, I think you need to be more fit to run on the average synthetic track than the average dirt track and that\'s always been my explanation for why you see the first time synthetics to dirt jumps in the figures. I have always equated it having ankle weights taken off. The firt time you run without them (i.e. first time dirt), you run a big number but that can be a one time phenomena.\"

     (IMHO) First off, I want to be clear that I am not dispelling your explanation nor am I putting out some form of \"dogma\" of synthetic track to dirt doctrines.  I am only responding to the point you made for some open discussions. (But some might say that I am posting on the wrong board-....but to have an open-mind is most imperative to forge ahead in our field of endeavors...no??  No one method gets all the winners in a card consistently…)

   To illustrate my opinion, we can use the past performance of the 2008 Kentucky Derby won by Big Brown.  Let\'s look at the past running lines of one of the Derby entrant, Gayego. Two lines back in the San Felipe, Gayego ran on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita.  Gayego chased a moderate pace set by Bob Black Jack, but the early leaders smoked home with a very fast closing fraction for the distance.   Gayego lost by 3/4 length.  

    mile and 1/16th race: fractions of  24.1 48.3 113 142.1

Even though, this race was run on synthetic surface, any horses that were able to stay up close and close with the final fraction of the race were worth following for their next race  as they ran a strong sustained race under the Sartin methodology programs especially on stretch outs to longer distances.
      Bob Black Jack next ran in the Santa Anita Derby and came in second at odds of 6-1 to Colonel John; while Gayego went on to win the Arkansas Derby at odds of 2-1….
   Final times in synthetic racing tend to be more slow as more jockeys restrain their mounts from any fast pace running in the early part of the race and let loose in the turn for home with many rodeo finishes…Final time figures will always underestimate the strength of these kinds of races as no real exertions were used until the last fractions.  For years, I couldn’t figure out how Larry the Legend had won the Santa Anita Derby off a slow prep race…until I went back and review the race and realized in hindsight that he had ran a race similar to the San Felipe race fractions of Gayego.

     Running early on dirt with a faster pace requires more energy demand than running the last part of a race on synthetic surface.  In some horses, this will require a peak performance in their development….anyways..back to the Breeder’s Cup…

[TreadHead]

You have to wonder if this same line of thinking is what lead them to enter Drosselmeyer in the Classic.  Under \"normal\" conditions, I think most agree he is too much of a plodder to be an impact on the race.  But he is also a very strong and powerful horse and according to past accounts \"never gets tired\".  

If the Churchill track truly is much more tiring than most others that the contenders are going to be coming from and are used to, this is definitely an advantage to Drosselmeyer.  Whether or not its enough of an advantage for him to overcome his slower figures, that\'s another question.

[covelj70]

Tread,

I think the figures will show tonigh that he has a chance to get a piece and the fact that we know he can get the distance, especially if others tire won\'t hurt his chances either.

If I remember correctely, he\'s about 3 TG points slower than the top few (leaving Mo\'s last monster number out of it b.c it was a one time number that was earned around 1 turn) but he\'s as faster or faster than most of the others.  

I think he has a chance to round out the tri or super at a big price.

[TGJB]

Dross is in the Classic because winning the Marathon would hurt him more than help him as a stallion.