ROTW

[justwin]

I\'m going with Handsome Mike as my key although I feel he will most likely back up to a 6. i like Russian Greek to improve as he\'s lightly raced and expect a 6-7. I\'ll use Lady of fifty in exotics as she gets a tg point in weight and should run an 8 without the weight factor. I\'ll also use Cahill Chrome at the price on the bottom of the exotics. Won\'t analyze every horse but some won\'t like the distance and some have a tg profile which is worse on synthetic than grass. Good Luck to all!

[TreadHead]

I\'m pretty confused by the analysis here, given all the prior emphasis that has been placed on playing against horses coming off a first time dirt explosion, which has been previously covered here at length.  Granted, he could back up a couple points and still win as long as no one moves forward, but given this is a triple crown springboard and the rapid developing nature of top horses during this time of year, I\'m leaning toward a much more chaotic result.

There are plenty in the field capable of moving forward, and this just smells to me like the sort of race where someone is going to pop a 3 to 4 point new top, and the 1 4 6 8 and 10 would all not really be huge shocks if one of them should happen to do it.  I can\'t make heads or tails of it, so it is a pass for me unless something jumps out in the others and I do a huge spread here on a pk3/4

[elkurzhal]

Cahill has the co-fastest fig over the surface.  Trainer 45% pair or top last 90 days.  25-1

[dannyboy135]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m pretty confused by the analysis here, given
> all the prior emphasis that has been placed on
> playing against horses coming off a first time
> dirt explosion, which has been previously covered
> here at length.  Granted, he could back up a
> couple points and still win as long as no one
> moves forward, but given this is a triple crown
> springboard and the rapid developing nature of top
> horses during this time of year, I\'m leaning
> toward a much more chaotic result.
>
> There are plenty in the field capable of moving
> forward, and this just smells to me like the sort
> of race where someone is going to pop a 3 to 4
> point new top, and the 1 4 6 8 and 10 would all
> not really be huge shocks if one of them should
> happen to do it.  I can\'t make heads or tails of
> it, so it is a pass for me unless something jumps
> out in the others and I do a huge spread here on a
> pk3/4


You were not confused.  this was a test to see in anyone has been listening.  you won the contest.  Not sure what the prize is.

[justwin]

I have a question. I threw out both Daddy Nose Best (winner) and Lucky Chappy (2nd) because their sire synthetic numbers were much worse than grass. Is this over analyzing the race or is it that tapeta as Jerry mentioned plays more like grass and I should only use this info on traditional poly tracks. Thanks.

[TGJB]

I usually play poly and always play Tapeta for grass. We haven\'t got enough room (or enough data to make it meaningful) to split the synths by type. 10 years from now most synths will hopefully be gone and that will simplify things.

[Edgorman]

Hopefully ten years from now our brains won\'t be gone or better yet, they will be replaced by synthetics.

[Rick B.]

Edgorman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hopefully ten years from now our brains won\'t be
> gone or better yet, they will be replaced by
> synthetics.

I\'m already there; mine is made from the stuff Michael Dickinson invented: Tapiocata.

[FrankD.]

Rick B.

Yours is gone from too many Old Style\'s and shot\'s of Jagermeister in Cicero and Berwyn

[jack72906]

Ha! Wow. Is that a \"Refinery Downs\" reference or just some of the local \"establishments\"?