Pop Quiz #1

[TGJB]

Okay kids. Over the next few days we will be asking a few questions designed to test your knowledge and common sense. Here\'s the first:

According to the Ragozin figures, Azeri ran the best race of her life, and earned her best figure

a) when she blew the doors off the BC last year, winning by 5 and earning a negative 1  from us and a 111 from Beyer

b) in one of her other 10 consecutive wins

c) last time out, when she was a well beaten third at 1 to 5.

Obviously, the answer is C, silly. Ragozin gave her a NEW lifetime top last time out. She was wide and carried high weight, and we gave her the best figure in that race-- but only a pair-up of her previous effort, and not as good as she had run 3 times before. If you believe Ragozin she would have needed about a 3 point NEW lifetime top to win that race-- at 1 to 5.

Anyone out there really believe that?

Those of you who have our pre-entries can see that there are 4 fillies out of that race back into the Distaff, and see how the figures for the Lady\'s Secret fit together-- Adoration, Elloluv and Get Koko all paired up their top, Azeri paired up her most recent. The figure is rock-solid.

There will be lots more fun with Ragozin figures coming up in the next few days.

TGJB,

I simply had to respond to this one.  That is exactly the kind of thing I look for. The Rag players are almost certainly going to bet and influence the board based on those figures. Future figures that Ragozin makes will in turn be based on those suspect figures, possibly creating another problem in the future.

IMO, that is the beauty of looking at multiple sets of figures if they are available. Aside from your desire to demonstrate the superiority of your product, a bettor can find clear examples of \"suspect\", \"incorrect\" figures and bet against them if they know the maker of those figs has influence over the board.

Thanks.

[Silver Charm]

I thought I would post this link to a Bloodhorse Article where the trainer of Azeri said she had an off day that afternoon in the Lady\'s Secret. Where she said the horse wasn\'t feeling well.

I know its totally out of character for me to stir something up but I couldn\'t resist.

[Frank]

Jerry,

As one totally without bias I will say that it seems absurd that Azeri ran her fastest ever race in that loss. No more ridiculous though than the belief that the fastest ever race run by a thoroughbred was by Mineshaft on the day he lost to Perfect Drift at Churchill Downs

Frank

[TGJB]

Don\'t want to spend a lot of time on this since Mineshaft isn\'t running in the BC, but I think subsequent events have made that figure look kinda good-- he was spotting Perfect Drift 9 pounds (almost 2 points) plus ground loss, and PD has come back to the figure he ran that day THREE more times. The third finisher, whom Mineshaft beat by more than NINE lengths while spotting weight and ground was Aldebaran, who has come back to run a few pretty good figures of his own, and several other good horses were beaten a pole.

The figure is solid relative to other figures of this generation. We also have discussed the question of racehorses as a group getting faster before here, and can again after the BC if you wish.

[Frank]

\"The figure is solid relative to other figures of this generation.\"

This is absolutely true. But you know exactly my point. We can continue this in the future. But for now there is a large carryover at Santa Anita that requires immediate attention.

Frank

[Silver Charm]

I really thought she was the horse to beat, but now that I hear what the Ragozin Sheets gave Azeri in her last race I\'m totally confused. Maybe I\'ll just throw both of them out and bet Take Charge Lady, she really looks like she is getting good right now.

Incidentally, Frankel took a page out of the Woody Stephens book of training when he shortened SightFreak up and taught her to rate. She has been rolling since then.

[jbelfior]

Silver Charm---


Assuming that TAKE CHARGE LADY is fully over her problems and taking into consideration that she goes into this year\'s BC as a stronger 4yo, she is interesting to say the least. A nice inside draw and you are looking at starting your BC day rather nicely.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[kev]

Well the question I have to ask is.

On Rag\'s figs most might say she will bounce and throw her out,
What will TG players be saying?? you all are going to bet her?

[TGJB]

 The question of whether the number is right is a seperate issue, and I don\'t know whether users of the two products will view her differently or not. My opinions about all the horses will be found in the seminar available starting next wednesday.

>>On Rag\'s figs most might say she will bounce and throw her out,
What will TG players be saying?? you all are going to bet her?<<

It\'s enough to realize there is some \"added\" potential for the race to be misbet because of these figure discrepancies.

IMO, you have to simply answer 3 questions and forget about what other players will  think or do.

1. Whose figure is most likely to be correct? (based on previous figures and common sense as presented TGJB)  

2. What odds should the contenders be based on the more accurate figures I am using and other insights.

3. What are the odds on the board and is anyone an overlay?

The answer to #1 is the easiest. TG

If TG, Rag, Beyer, and other figure makers ALL agree about the relative merits of the horses, it\'s going to be more difficult to find value on the board.

When there is a huge disagreement or you have some special insight, that\'s when the alarm bells should go off for POTENTIAL.