Arkansas Derby

[BitPlayer]

Alternation gets back about 3 of those lengths on TG by being 3 wide on both turns.

[alm]

A very nice string of posts.  Certainly, correctly assessing the Ark Derby is going to be the single most important decision anyone will have to make in putting together a bet on the KY Derby.  Having said that, I don\'t think we can assess what Arkansas means by looking back on what we think are comparable situations that occurred years ago, as opposed to looking forward at what we think the winner will do next.

IMHO Bodemeister beat a very suspect group.  He beat them pretty badly, but chances are that several other of the leading contenders would have buried them too.  In fact, my guess is that Hansen would have taken them too....big. Even though he won impressively on poly before, his times were ordinary. I did not give him a big chance in the BG because of that, and a good grass horse ran away from him in the end.  Continuing to look at Hansen, I am also going to guess that the connections are not feeling too great about hanging him out there with only three weeks to recover from a very tough effort.  Personally, I think that they made a sucko choice going to Keeneland.

Did any of you watch Dullahan stagger for several strides after the finish in the BG?  It was a great, great effort....Kent D really wrung the lemon...how many times did he hit the horse in the lane?  Let me predict that Dullahan has nothing left and that he runs something like a dull 8th or 10th at Churchill.

Back to Bode...for a horse to cross over the field and then go on to do what he did, I have to assume he was very tightly wound.  Once he got to the fence, he didn\'t lose another inch of ground and no one could pressure him.  What will happen when Take Charge Indy leaves the gate with him?  Maybe one of them will stumble out of the gate and this won\'t be an issue, but I can\'t bet on that.

What I can bet on is that Alpha, Gemologist and Union Rags will have the best chance of collaring these fellows assuming they continue to improve off their recent races AND WE HAVE NO REASON TO ASSUME THEY WILL NOT IMPROVE.  That\'s where this weekend of racing took my thinking on the subject.

[miff]

Bit,

Interesting that the bias guys just said that they have \"nothing good\" happening along the rail at OP all day(except maybe one horse) and that most jocks stayed off the one path if possible.May explain why one of OP top jocks, Quinonez, stayed kinda 3 path with Alternation all the way even when he could have angled over to the fence and saved ground.


Mike

[big18741]

Interesting take on Dullahan but I see him more as a pair up candidate in three weeks.If his Bluegrass comes back in the TG 1 range I think he\'s a serious contender.

If you go back and watch his Breeders Futurity last fall Desormeaux was walloping
him in the stretch of that race similar to yesterday.Big new 5 point top there and he paired in the Juvenile four weeks later.

Only difference here is three weeks back to the Derby.He fits on pedigree and he comes home faster than any horse in the Derby field.If TG has him fast enough I\'m not worried about the bounce.

[TGJB]

Right. Beyer doesn\'t use weight or ground, so if you tie the figures to other horses in both races-- which is the right way to go-- he ends up giving Bodie faster than we do.

[Michael D.]

Bode looks like War Emblem, who I believe ran a 12 1/5 final eighth in his Ill Derby wire job.

We shouldn\'t forget, though, that Bode got inhaled by Creative Cause just 5 weeks ago. Finished in a slowish :06.34 while shortening stride. Ran a :48.52 1/2 that day prior to the average finish. He ran a :50.20 1/2 before the flying finish in the Ark Derby. Bode probably needs a loose :47 and a breather around the far turn to wire the Derby field. Maybe not though. He\'s bred to get 10f. It probably helps that Hansen got run down on Sat. When connections see their horse get run down after setting a fast pace, they invariably tell the jock to slow it down next time, especially if stretching out. And Borel\'s not known to get caught in CD speed duels (TCI). On the fence with Bode.

Wouldn\'t usually put so much stock in a race run 6 months prior, but that BC Juvy is such a key race that I still have to use it as the most important handicapping input. Union Rags was best that day, and it no longer looks like he\'ll be the big favorite.

[toppled]

Beyer # was raised from a 105 to a 108 after they did a review.

[miff]

Top,

After some soul searching the Beyer guys gave Bode 108, the CORRECT number according to their methodology would have been 111 but they decided to drop Alternation 3 points from 100 to 97.They were in la la land with some voodoo \"pace\" adjustment before.

Beyer, by their methodology, now acknowledges that Bode ran 7.22 lengths faster than Alternation, period!

Mike

[Boscar Obarra]

I figure any beyer # is +/- 10 points for accuracy.

[TGJB]

Michael-- except WE was 20-1...

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- except WE was 20-1...


an important distinction indeed.

[TGJB]

Still by far the biggest one race hit of my life.