2012 Kentucky Derby / Oaks Probables Available

[TGAB]

Thoro-Graph sheets for the 2012 Kentucky Derby / Oaks are now available as a Special. It costs $25 and will be available through April 30th. This will be the last preliminary file until the fields are drawn and the actual Churchill Oaks Day and Derby Day cards are available as well as the annual Thoro-Graph Derby / Oaks seminar.

[big18741]

What to do with Creative Cause,Hansen and I\'ll Have Another?

All three backing up after big new tops.

[covelj70]

Exactly the issue I was thinking about when your post popped up.

Of the 3, I think I am most willing to given ill have another the best shot of running his race since he has had the most time since the big figure and because he bounced less than the others.

[RICH]

how about TCI his number prior to the Fderby was changed?

[Wrongly]

Jim

It\'s Drug Oniel!  I\'m not surprised at all he popped a big new top off the long layoff.

Guess the next question what\'s happening with \"Super Testing\" this Derby?

[Rick B.]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It\'s Drug Oniel!  I\'m not surprised at all he
> popped a big new top off the long layoff.
>
> Guess the next question what\'s happening with
> \"Super Testing\" this Derby?

It\'s effectively a 7 pt. top -- essentially the same as what Matz got with Union Rags in that one\'s 2nd lifetime start.

No one posted any suspicions about that move.

[Wrongly]

Rick

That\'s a bad comparison.  Rags improvement was from 1st start to his 2nd lifetime race.  Don\'t know what Matz stats are with first time starter but I bet he\'s better 2nd time out.  Rags also ran his next 3 races within 1 point of each other.

While Drug\'s horse comes out and improves 1 point off his first start and in his 3rd start bounces badly.  4 months later in his 1st start as a 3-year old he pops just a 7 point new top to win a Grade 1.

Maybe you just object to my use of his surname Drug.

[Rick B.]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick
>
> That\'s a bad comparison.  Rags improvement was
> from 1st start to his 2nd lifetime race.  Don\'t
> know what Matz stats are with first time starter
> but I bet he\'s better 2nd time out.  Rags also ran
> his next 3 races within 1 point of each other.
>
> While Drug\'s horse comes out and improves 1 point
> off his first start and in his 3rd start bounces
> badly.  4 months later in his 1st start as a
> 3-year old he pops just a 7 point new top to win a
> Grade 1.
>
> Maybe you just object to my use of his surname
> Drug.
 
What I object to is selective persecution. I don\'t care where they come from nor who gets them -- 7 pt. new tops are pretty spectacular.

Union Rags got his huge top going from a rather ordinary maiden race to not just any race for his second lifetime start -- he jumped up right to Gr II Saratoga Special and won with ridiculous ease; TG gave him a 3.

A 2 year old colt. In the summer.

Not a peep from anyone, though, because it\'s Matz; you think that would have gone without comment if it was O\'Neill or Tricky, instead?

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think I am most willing to given ill
> have another the best shot of running his race
> since he has had the most time since the big
> figure and because he bounced less than the
> others.


that, and because you get dollar signs swirling in your head every time you see the words \"Flower Alley\".

I\'ll Have Another looks like he\'ll be longer on the board than the horse he just beat (while earning a better figure).