derby history

[Wrongly]

Miff

You probably don\'t care but since 1900 there has been 27 horses who had only 4 lifetime starts before the Derby, 2 won - Alan a Date in 1902, Exterminator in 1918.

Request for Jerry any chance you have or know what the sheet for Air Forbes Won looked like in 1982.  Just wondering how much he had in common with Bode.

[TGJB]

No idea and I\'m not going to the room at the storage place (scared to).

You guys are looking at this wrong. The right studies are the ones like Downey did (how fast did these horses run relative to their tops), not whether they won, and I promise you there will be such studies in the seminar. I\'m actually having some fun getting into this stuff this year-- as sample size gets bigger, it gets more and more interesting. Both the Oaks and the Derby are really interesting, lot to talk about there.

[miff]

Wrong,

Just my take Wrong, think every horse is it\'s own entity and see no relationship between what others have done in the past vs what these will do on May 5.


Mike

[justwin]

Does anyone know where to find the Downey study? i know someone had post it a while ago but I\'d like to look at all the data Downey presented. i didn\'t see it under the downey profile.

[Wrongly]

Miff

Granted what one horse did or did not do has no impact on how these Derby entries might perform. I just got curious, Air Forbes Won did not run as a 2-year old, had only 4 lifetime starts prior to the Derby and was the post time favorite in 1982.

[miff]

Wrong,

Pretty certain Frank Labo Sr convinced many regulars at Aqueduct that AFO could not lose.Thing is, 95% of the field lose every year, pretty easy to back into any negative stat you want.

Mike

[jefflowe]

Unless I\'m misunderstanding your criteria, this leaves out Animal Kingdom, who came in with 4 lifetime starts last year.

[justwin]

i looked at the last 4 years in more detail, # of weeks left out as there was no difference in what I looked at between 3 weeks or 8 weeks so here it is 2 races prior, race prior, derby:
2011 -
Santiva, 6 pt top, off, middle, 5th @ 35-1
Soldat, no top, off, middle, 11th @ 12-1
Stay Thirsty, no top, off, middle, 12th @ 17-1
Watch Me Go, 4 pt top, off, middle, 18th @ 34-1
2010
Nobles Promise, 3 pt top, off, middle, 5th @ 25-1
Lookin at Lucky, 3 pt top, off, middle, 6th @ 6-1
Conveyance, 2 pt top, -2, off, 15th @ 27-1, 0-2-x
Backtalk, 1/2 pt top, -2, off, 20th @ 23-1, 0-2-x
2009
Chocolate Candy, 3 pt top, -1 1/2, pair, 5th @ 10-1
Join in the dance, 2 pt top, - 2 1/2, pair, 7th @ 51-1
Nowhere to Hide, 2 1/2 pt top, -2, off, 17th @ 45-1, 0-2-x
Flying Private, 2 pt top, -2, off, 19th @ 47-1, 0-2-x
2008
Denis of Cork, 5 pt top, off, middle, 3rd @ 27-1
Pyro, no top, off, middle, 8th @ 6-1
Visionaire, 3 pt top-slop, off, off, 12th @ 25-1
Cool Coal Man, 5 pt top, off, off, 15th @ 44-1
Big Truck, 1 pt top, -3, off, 18th @ 29-1

Overall analysis seems like I wasted a lot of time as many of these horses were longshots. The most common pattern suggests that horses with big tops that then bounce then middle in the derby. Also, small -2 moves off small tops seem to run off in the derby.
Any other thoughts.