Derby Morning Line

[MO]

Mike Battaglia quoted saying Union Rags and Bode will likely be co favs around 4-1.

http://news24now.com/kentucky-derby-2012-post-position-will-determine-preliminary-favorite/3247

Based on that info and my past experience doing the ML for Delaware Park a few years back, I\'ve come up with a likely morning line for the Derby. Let\'s see how close it comes to Mike\'s.......

Bodemiester       4-1
Union Rags        4-1
Gemologist        6-1
I\'ll Have Another 8-1
Dullahan         10-1
Take Charge Indy 10-1
Hansen           12-1
Alpha            15-1
Creative Cause   15-1
Daddy Long Legs  20-1
Daddy Nose Best  20-1
Done Talkin      20-1
Went The Day Well 20-1
El Padrino       30-1
Laison           30-1
Mark Valeski     30-1 SCRATCHED
Prospective      30-1
Rousing Sermon   50-1 Adjusted to 40-1
Sabercat         50-1 Adjusted to 40-1
Trinniberg       50-1
Optimizer        50-1

[sekrah]

I would move Creative Cause to 12-1, and flip Done Talking and El Padrino.  Move Prospective to 50-1.

Other than that, yea this\'ll be pretty close to the morning line.

[plasticman]

Hansen is a \'famous\' horse, he might be the 3rd ML fave. Also remember that Hansen started his career at Battaglia\'s home track, so, Mike might have more of a soft spot and \'overrate\' Hansen\'s greatness.

[analizethis]

Pending changes for post position here\'s an estimate of \"fair value\":

Union Rags         6 - 1
Bodemeister        7 - 1
Gemologist         7 - 1
Creative Cause     9 - 1
Daddy Nose Best   11 - 1
Went the Day Well 11 - 1
Hansen            13 - 1
Dullahan          16 - 1
Prospective       16 - 1
Sabercat          18 - 1
El Padrino        18 - 1
Done Talking      25 - 1
Take Cahrge Indy  30 - 1
I\'ll Have Another 30 - 1
Rousing Sermon    50 - 1
Optimizer         55 - 1
Daddy Long Legs   55 - 1
Alpha             55 - 1
Liaison           85 - 1
Trinniberg        99 - 1

[Ill-bred]

Based on your opinions of fair value and what I think they will go off at, prepare yourself to bet on Went the Day Well (definitely be higher than 11-1) and Done Talking (should be higher than 25-1).

[Holybull1]

Does ANYONE give Trinniberg a chance to run off with this?  If the race were 7 furlong\'s he\'d be right there on TG\'s.  A mile? Maybe. etc...

[sekrah]

I\'ll take the Baffert shipper all-in at 85-1.   And I\'ll book triple those prices on Prospective (48-1) and Sabrecat (54-1).

[Silver Charm]

30-1 on the Florida Derby winner?? Not happening. Dont like him and also dont like the 50 works those Palm Meadows horses are shipping in off of. Has anyone other than Big Brown shipped in late from there and run well. Someone has that info. Curious?

[touchgold]

I think Funny Cide came in late.

[sekrah]

2011 - Dialed In and Soldat

2010 - None Shipped In from Pmm.

2009 - Could not find any PPs of this year anywhere.

2008 - Big Brown wins shipping from Pmm without a CD work.

2007 - None

2006 - None, but Bluegrass Cat trained at Pmm, shipped to Churchill after the Bluegrass and looked awful in his workouts over the Churchill dirt.  Finished 2nd.

2005 - None,  but 3 horses arrived at Churchill Downs late, without a workout over the dirt track.  Those three were Giacomo (1st), Buzzards Bay (5th), and Wilko (6th)

2004 - None,

2003 - None, but Funny Cide was there all spring up until his 2nd place Wood finish, than ran two workouts at Belmont before winning.  No Churchill Workout.

Other notes:
1. The 2010 Kentucky Oaks exacta involved two horses that did not have a workout over the Churchill Downs dirt (Blind Luck/Evening Jewel)
2. Dakota Phone (31 races) had never ran a single race over the Churchill Downs dirt nor did he have any workouts over it prior to winning the 2010 BC Dirt Mile.    Zenyatta also ran huge in the Classic that year without any races or works over the Churchill dirt.

Pretty much confirms what I\'ve always believed.. It\'s totally irrelevant noise whether a horse gets a \"workout\" over the track or not prior to the Derby, and it should not be a factor in anyone\'s handicapping for a race.   The sample size of horses shipping straight from Pmm to CD prior to the Derby is ridiculously small, and there\'s still a winner in there.   It is not logical to be eliminating horses for this reason.

[alm]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Pretty much confirms what I\'ve always believed..
> It\'s totally irrelevant noise whether a horse gets
> a \"workout\" over the track or not prior to the
> Derby, and it should not be a factor in anyone\'s
> handicapping for a race.   The sample size of
> horses shipping straight from Pmm to CD prior to
> the Derby is ridiculously small, and there\'s still
> a winner in there.   It is not logical to be
> eliminating horses for this reason.


I agree with your conclusion.  And let\'s look at Gemologist, one of the key horses in the center of this conversation.  If I were TAP and I knew the horse could handle Churchill because it already HAS handled Churchill, I would be reluctant to ship him early and then have to manage him at a distance.....in the media hothouse of Churchill.  In other words, I would have to choose to be at Churchill the whole time and not hear over the phone about what he was doing day to day.  Of course, that assumes TAP is hanging out at Palm.  Idea?: if you eliminate Gem because he will arrive late you may be making a very bad decision.

[plasticman]

Is there some reason that the ML favorite has to be \'seperate\' from the 2nd choice? In other words, why couldnt Bode and UR be co-favorites? Did Mike Battaglia HAVE to make them different prices? Just from listening to him, you would think that a gun was to his head to make them different prices.