Offshore Odds (Belmont)

[sekrah]

Paynter 10-1.   All I can eat.   This is the first time in any of these Triple Crown races that I actually think I have an edge.

[Lost Cause]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paynter 10-1.   All I can eat.   This is the first
> time in any of these Triple Crown races that I
> actually think I have an edge.


Don\'t have the PPs in front of me for everyone in the race.  Will he be the lone speed?  The one thing I learned from the D\'tara debacle is that if a horse gets loose in front the other horses are just as wobbly legged at the end of the 1 1/2 mile race the only difference is they have to make up the 2 lengths or so in front of them.  Throw in that Paynter is bred to run all day and I think you have the main threat to IHA.  If Mario tries to stay close and they go too fast early look out for Street Life or Union Rags motoring down the lane  If Mario lets Paynter go he has to try to move early to at least be even by the top of the stretch and hopefully grind down Paynter by the wire.  

4 years later and it still hurts to bring up D\'Tara\'s name..

[Silver Charm]

This race resembles Siphon and Dare and Go against Cigar!!

Mario is in a damned if I do damned if I dont situation.

[boston]

IHA 8-5 offshore - seems fair

[mjellish]

That is dead right Lost Cause.  I had Dennis of Cork so many ways that year, vertical, horizontal... it wasn\'t even funny.  If D\'Tara doesn\'t win that race I am still spending the money.  I still can\'t believe it.  

Then again, Ruler on Ice beat me out of a pretty good score last year too.  So what the hell...

Still not sure how to play this Belmont.  Need to wait. My gut tells me UR is the colt you have to figure out.  If you like him then you have to figure him a threat to win as  fresh horse.  If you don\'t you are going to get some value in this race vertically no matter what.

[P-Dub]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Paynter 10-1.   All I can eat.   This is the
> first
> > time in any of these Triple Crown races that I
> > actually think I have an edge.
>
>
> Don\'t have the PPs in front of me for everyone in
> the race.  Will he be the lone speed?  The one
> thing I learned from the D\'tara debacle is that if
> a horse gets loose in front the other horses are
> just as wobbly legged at the end of the 1 1/2 mile
> race the only difference is they have to make up
> the 2 lengths or so in front of them.  Throw in
> that Paynter is bred to run all day and I think
> you have the main threat to IHA.  If Mario tries
> to stay close and they go too fast early look out
> for Street Life or Union Rags motoring down the
> lane  If Mario lets Paynter go he has to try to
> move early to at least be even by the top of the
> stretch and hopefully grind down Paynter by the
> wire.  
>
> 4 years later and it still hurts to bring up
> D\'Tara\'s name..

Seems to me IHA just had the scenario in his last 2 races that you are envisioning here.

Granted, the Derby pace was wicked, but the Preakness pace was anything but. He found a way to run down a lone front runner in each race.

Don\'t overthink the pace scenario here. Gutierrez can put IHA anywhere he likes.  He can make his own running, whether that is closer to a dawdling pace, or off of a swifter one.  He demonstrated the ability to do both in the first 2 legs.

The only question for me is.....how much did the Preakness take out of him?  He was all out to run down Bodemeister. If this horse wasn\'t adversely affected by that performance, I don\'t care what the pace scenario is, he\'ll find a way to run them down and win. This looks like a pretty special horse to me.

[big18741]

Paynter on paper is the controlling speed and IHA figures to be doing the stalking again.

If Paynter is crawling out there I\'d expect UR and Unstoppable U to apply some pressure.UR fresh off two trouble trips and a rider switch figures to get a different type ride here.

Not sure why McPeek would run Unstoppable U in a Belmont off only two career starts but the guy isn\'t an idiot.He owns the horse and he also has Atigun in the race who comes from farther back.They talked about running in a race on the undercard which would make more sense.If UU does run in the Belmont he\'s gotta be there to make sure Paynter doesn\'t get too comfortable on an easy lead.

Everybody else comes from farther off it.

[Lost Cause]

P-Dub Wrote:
>
> Seems to me IHA just had the scenario in his last
> 2 races that you are envisioning here.
>
> Granted, the Derby pace was wicked, but the
> Preakness pace was anything but. He found a way to
> run down a lone front runner in each race.
>
> Don\'t overthink the pace scenario here. Gutierrez
> can put IHA anywhere he likes.  He can make his
> own running, whether that is closer to a dawdling
> pace, or off of a swifter one.  He demonstrated
> the ability to do both in the first 2 legs.
>
> The only question for me is.....how much did the
> Preakness take out of him?  He was all out to run
> down Bodemeister. If this horse wasn\'t adversely
> affected by that performance, I don\'t care what
> the pace scenario is, he\'ll find a way to run them
> down and win. This looks like a pretty special
> horse to me.


Belated Congratulations to you P-Dub!!!

I also think that IHA is a very good animal but I was talking about that last quarter mile and having enough legs under you to catch a horse that will be two lengths in front that was just galloping along.  If a horse like Da\'tara can do it and never win a race again I would not play against a seemingly better horse like Paynter being able to do it.  I\'m not one of those guys that just plays against horses that just look too good because they are the fave but I rarely come across those \"can\'t lose\" types and I definitely see Paynter causing IHA some problems.