jaime ness-QUESTION FOR JERRY

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Sekrah identified the right way to analyze this
> question-- look at whether trainers are getting a
> lot of unusual figure move-ups, not whether they
> win races, which can be a function of lots of
> things, as people have noted here. Also look at
> whether they get hot and cold doing this.

Well, Ness tears it up wherever he goes; someone give me a holler when he cools off.

So that I understand the premise of what is being inferred from \"unusual figure move-ups\": is it completely unlikely that a trainer can regularly get, say, 3 point new tops out of older claimers simply by exercising / swimming them into shape, having (legal) leg work done, then placing the animal in a spot where he can compete and win?

Or must it automatically be that something illegal is going on?

Several people here have correctly pointed out that Ness almost always places his horses where they can win right now, and I have to believe that alone can be a big factor in reviving a racehorse\'s competitive spirit. Really -- how many other claiming trainers do this (besides whoever is training for Frank Calabrese today)?

[TGJB]

I was once sitting with the top pro player on this board, talking to the then head of Del Mar (now of the BC) about the drug problem. We came up with 30 plus names in 10 minutes, literally, of people who either were or had been doing something.

I went through exactly the question you asked with the Jockey Club committee, using Frankel in spring/summer 2001 as the example. The chance of one older horse running a 3 point new top in any specific start is let\'s say 5%. The chance of two in a row doing it is becomes 5% of 5%. By the time you get to a whole barn-- as was happening then-- the numbers are astronomical.

I posted the sheet of a Scott Lake horse here a couple of years ago. That was extreme, but you get the idea. When a trainer has just one horse do the extremely unlikely it\'s no big deal-- unless his other horses are doing it too. When it happens with a second one I start paying attention.

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
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> The chance of one older horse running a 3 point new
> top in any specific start is let\'s say 5%. The chance
> of two in a row doing it is becomes 5% of 5%. By the
> time you get to a whole barn-- as was happening then--
> the numbers are astronomical.

I won\'t get into a numbers tussle with you, JB -- that would be foolish AND disrespectful -- but I have to ask: how does a statistical anomaly such as what you have described *automatically* indicate illegal activity?

Ness trains on the \"lesser\" circuits: lesser horses, lesser trainers, lesser owners. IMO, he could run rings around his competition at these places simply by spending money on legal stuff that other connections simply can\'t or won\'t pay for. Add in aggressive placement of horses by a guy who sleeps with the condition book under his head, and voilà: 40% wins and new tops by the cartload.

Impossible?

(Last post from me on this topic. I know you have real work to do. Thanks for responding.)

[TGJB]

You keep on looking at win %-- it\'s a secondary indicator, based on a primary one, how fast they run. I look at only the primary one.

Maryland is anything but a minor circuit when it comes to horsemen, and Lake (historically) and Ness get tons of jumpups. The circuits where the Ziades and Nick Cananis and Catalanos of the world have been operating are not the minors, and they have gotten tons of huge jump ups. Last year it was Divito (sp?), but only in Chicago, they didn\'t run in Florida. Now, does this prove these guys have been doing something illegal? No. But they\'re doing SOMETHING.

I was at a track 4-5 years ago when one of the above said to a good friend of mine, \"They\'ll never get me, by the time they figure out what I\'m doing I\'ll be doing something else\". About an hour before he won a graded stake.

[boston]

The super-trainers achieve winning percentages that defy all the traditional norms of their profession. In the past it was extraordinary for a trainer to win with as many as 25 percent of his starters. Of the top 35 race-winning trainers in 1980, only one (future Hall of Famer Bud Delp) reached that figure. When the great horseman Bill Mott had the best year of his career, operating an exceptionally powerful stable that included Horse of the Year Cigar, he won with 24 percent of his starters. But such a performance would represent a mini-slump for many of the contemporary super-trainers, who dominate race meetings by winning at a 30 or 40 percent clip.

-drf.com

[Boscar Obarra]

Even more amazing than the results of these trainers is the desire by some to hold out hope that it\'s just \'better housekeeping\'. Or should I say  horsekeeping?

[gteasy]

Speaking of SoCal, three names worth discussing in this vein are Mitchell, Mullins, and O\'Neill...these barns don\'t \"behave\" Sheet-wise like most others...they are always a threat to magically find that back fig...or more...it feels \"chemical\"... how far can cleaning teeth properly take you?...try not to be didactic.

The uncoupled entry is an angle that many barns here use to advantage...track them as best you can...good one for JB to include in his trainer stats...the \"lesser part of entry\", or LPOE as noted in my Form...Mitchell put over a beauty last week.

[Topcat]

gteasy Wrote:
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> Speaking of SoCal, three names worth discussing in
> this vein are Mitchell, Mullins, and
> O\'Neill...these barns don\'t \"behave\" Sheet-wise
> like most others...they are always a threat to
> magically find that back fig...or more...it feels
> \"chemical\"... how far can cleaning teeth properly
> take you?...try not to be didactic.
>
> The uncoupled entry is an angle that many barns
> here use to advantage...track them as best you
> can...good one for JB to include in his trainer
> stats...the \"lesser part of entry\", or LPOE as
> noted in my Form...Mitchell put over a beauty last
> week.


. . . and Baffert\'s an absolute Life Master, in this area.

[Rich Curtis]

Gteasy wrote:

\"the \'lesser part of entry\', or LPOE as noted in my Form...Mitchell put over a beauty last week.\"

 What is the horse\'s name?