Ragozin Derby Numbers

[TGJB]

Because Vito is a nice guy I will just say two things:

1-- They have Revolutionary going BACK 2 1/2 points. (No Alm, it\'s not because they have the La Derby fast, they have it the same as we do). NI going back 2 points. To appreciate the degree to which they have the Derby collapsing you would have to see the full sheets, how fast the horses were going in.

2-- They must have Orb awful wide, given the relationship between him and the others.

[TreadHead]

The other thing I noticed is that they gave Orb only .75 better than IHAs Derby last year.

[vp612]

Well ORB did come from the 16 post so he did figure to be wide.No matter what they gave him it\'s a backward moving line,2 weeks,plenty of development 6/5 a definite bet against.

[TGJB]

There\'s wide and there\'s wide. And that\'s what caused most of the other problems they had with the race. Both of us had Orb pairing up, but since they had him so wide when they did the race off him it forced them to give bad figures to everyone else (or give Orb a new top, which they apparently didn\'t want to do).

We had two guys do ground for the race. One had him 3/45, the other 3/456 (which is a net difference of 1/4 TG point between the two). Ragozin had him about 3 total paths wider. And that\'s relative to the other horses-- if they had them wider it means they had Orb even wider than that.

Miff has commented about the big figures the Ragozin operation gives \"wide\" horses before.

[vp612]

I am not in a position to defend their numbers because honestly, I know very little about\"making numbers\".I do understand what you are saying but that\'s about it.

[vp612]

Let\'s look at it this way your numbers on ORb are 7-1/2, 1,-2.-2 (9-1/2 points development)their numbers are 12+,& 7,4-,4-(8-1/2 points development) which when you factor in that your scale is generally 5,6 points faster the numbers are pretty close,at least with ORB they are.

[TGJB]

Our figures had been running about 4 faster, looking at this years 3yos it\'s about 5. But yes, We both have Orb similar and pairing tops. It\'s the horses behind him that are much different now based on the Derby-- especially the 2 3 4 5 finishers.

[Perfect Drift]

TGJB...the position of a horse on the track is objective, not subjective.  The animal can only be located at a single discrete point at any particular moment in time.  A race such as the Derby has a wide shot, head-on shot and overhead shot.  How can two professional number-making organizations be so different.  It\'s really not something that can be debated.  A horse is where it is...why does this frequently become such a debate?

This is 2013... Trackus technology takes 30 readings PER SECOND of a horse\'s position - I would think that would end the debate.

[TGJB]

You would think it would. It doesn\'t. I\'m friends with one of the guys who owns that company, we\'ve discussed it here before, no further comment re Trakus.

But re the Derby, you can watch the tape and decide for yourself. Historically Ragozin track men have used fanning out in the stretch as part of the turn, which is wrong. If you can get those guys to say what ground they used for Orb this would be a simpler conversation.

[vp612]

Ok.

[high roller]

Why have two guys do the race - when you can buy Trakus data that\'s the best in the world? Verified by GPS.

[york32]

with a 20% chance of pairing up and a underlay  he wasn\'t a good win bet for me