Triple Crown

[Bet Twice]

Hypothetical question for the experts:  If you were Shug and could \"prescribe\" a number for Orb to run in the Preakness that would give him the best chance in the Belmont what would it be?  In other words, would you prefer to see him pair up the -2 again, move forward slightly, etc..?

[covelj70]

Pairing up is probably his best bet as it would show that number isn\'t taking anything out of him

Obviously a move back at all ala Big Brown\'s Preakness and we are looking at an 0-2-x for the Belmont and a big move forward here and we have to be concerned that he finally hit a level to which he would react.

[SoCalMan2]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pairing up is probably his best bet as it would
> show that number isn\'t taking anything out of him
>
> Obviously a move back at all ala Big Brown\'s
> Preakness and we are looking at an 0-2-x for the
> Belmont and a big move forward here and we have to
> be concerned that he finally hit a level to which
> he would react.


The Original Poster\'s question is a really hard question.  I would love to see what Easy Goer\'s pattern was for the triple crown races. I think that could really shed some light on the question.

I am not so sure a small backward move is bad news for the Belmont, and I really do not know what figure in the Preakness I would like to see for him going into the Belmont.  What if he pulls a Dreaming of Julia?  Then what?  Also, what kind of figure will be necessary to win the Belmont?  Who knows who will be still standing and what they are capable of. I can see a scenario where he wins the Preakness with a zero, and then another zero is good enough in the Belmont and he looks like he can do that.

If he comes into the Belmont off a 0-2 pattern, I would not automatically use that to predict an X.  I have found you really need to be cautious using the 0-2-X concept for predicting Xs.  It is way more useful to wait for the X and then bet on the new tops that O-2-Xs produce (since the beauty of it is that the X scares away a lot of bettors, yet it is a pattern that produces new tops).

If Orb wins the Preakness, it is going to be really hard to figure out what to do with him in the Belmont.  I think his challenge in the Preakness is tougher in that there are two horses that can match his top.  Although the Belmont comes at the end of a grueling schedule, it is also possible he will not need as tough a number to win the Belmont as he does in the Preakness.  I find it hard to believe that Shug would run Orb in the Belmont if he is giving Shug vibes that an X is coming (I think there would all of a sudden be a quarter crack or something rather than risk a bad race). So, I could see myself being reluctant to bet against him in the Belmont if Shug puts him in the gate.

[kekomi]

i don\'t think shug, janney, or phipps think about patterns and figs, to be honest. janey & phipps don\'t even use nicks when selecting stallions for their brood mares. i think if orb is scratched, or not entered, it will be from something more serious than simply a possible decline in performance resulting from past efforts. i don\'t think shug would risk orb\'s health just to run him, but i don\'t think fear of losing or running poorly will keep orb out of the race--any other race in the future sure maybe, but not the belmont this year--it\'s shug\'s home track, shug doesn\'t have to worry about losing his horse to another trainer, and shug is in love with this horse, he believes in him, just like he believed in easy goer--which is why even after two tough races and two hard beats, he stuck it out for all three rounds. and with janney & phipps, orb is like their grandkid, and their like proud grandparents--people in that frame of mind don\'t register bonking as part of the realm of what\'s possible.

[kekomi]

relevant:

Orb was scheduled to van back to Belmont Park on Sunday morning, and McGaughey said he would like to run back in the Belmont Stakes if owners Ogden Mills “Dinny” Phipps and Stuart Janney III wanted to run.

“I would want to talk to them, see how he comes out of it, but I would like to run,” McGaughey said.