Dixie Stakes

[covelj70]

Well, since you all helped me conclude that the Double isn\'t playable (sincerely thanks for the thoughts from everyone), I decided to do a detailed analysis of the Dixie.

I have it in Microsoft Word becasue I have some tables in the analysis and it doesn\'t format here when I tried to cut and paste.  I thought I could just attach it as a file but I guess I can\'t do that?

If anyone has any ideas on how to get it up to the Board, please let me know otherwise, I will just put the analysis in the garbage which is probably where it belongs anyway

[P-Dub]

If you have a blog, you could put it there and post the link. Don\'t know if JB wants us doing that kind of thing on his board, but its a thought.

[Silver Charm]

They dont allow attachments I\'m sure because of potential viruses.

Good Luck Jim...JUST WIN!!

[Old Mr. Boston]

Any chance of brief synopsis....perhaps a buy, sell or hold piece?!!

[TreadHead]

You can load it to GoogleDocs and just provide a link to the URL here

[covelj70]

here\'s the synopsis with weight adjusted tops in parens.  I wish I could post the tables with the other comments and weight adjusted tops but this will have to do

Wilcoxx Inn (1.25)
Should save ground on first turn, lose ground on second turn, the one to beat
if he can avoid too much traffic trouble closing into a huge field

Optimizer (1.4)      
amazing what this horse does being run so often, think 3rd race in 5 weeks
finally catches up with him here but has surprised me before

Utley (3.25)      
seems a step slow for these but jock is always dangerous with these types
at this track   

Imagining (1)      
On figures and race shapes, he\'s the pick but lightly raced 5 yr old obviously
has some physical issues; horses with issues run best when fresh and that
was a big new top from him, good chance but siding with others

Doubles Partner (2)      
Figures to lose a lot of ground given running style and jockey tendencies
could get up for a piece underneath but like others more on top

Thunder Lord (10.5 turf only)      
Never run fast enough on turf to compete with these
      
Howe Great (2)      
Nice horse but last was a big new turf top and would need
to move forward again to win and that doesn\'t seem likely
Pair up could earn a piece given advantageous running style

See Tobe   (2.25)   
Just a step slow on his best and figures to lose ground coming from the back in a big field
not impossible but would need a price to include underneath

Swift Warrior (1.7)
Weight hurts but still right there on the weight adjusted figures and training
the best he ever has coming into a race; confident he will hit
the board, will need racing luck to win
      
Skyring (3.25)
Just a step slow for these but should save ground
minor award possible   
      
Humble and Hungry (3.5)
Just a step slow for these and looks like he will lose ground
      
Two Months Rent (2.75)      
Just a step slow for these and looks like he will lose ground
      

Forte Dei Marmi (2.5)   
Should be used to get a piece at the right price
Step slower and figures to lose ground but jock can be so good
with these types

[rhagood]

Jim:

You had mentioned that Swift Warrior is good to go if he gets into the gate which has been an issue.  I noticed on Dan Illmans\'s latest DRF Blog on Horses to Watch list this comment:

May 13:
*SWIFT WARRIOR (tied up) - Belmont training - 5 Furlongs - 1:01.23 b (6/28)

I worked the backstretch in the late 80\'s (saw Easy Goer go to the track almost every day) and tying up is never an easy solve.  More often occurred with fillies and some contribution had to have been mental (you notice great athletes even tie up under more duress than normal) but the lactic acid build-up was problematic. It was most often treated post tie-up but with loss of time. With some reflection I wonder if Gator aid or similar given a few days in sequence pre work might help. We used all sorts of homeopathic remedies but not that one.  Just a thought and best of luck Saturday!

[covelj70]

thanks alot for the thoughts.

Warrior ties up alot but he comes out of it very quickly.

He tied up 2 weeks before his victory in the Connelly.  We were going to run him in the turf stake at Gulfsteam but he tied up that week so we had to skip that race and then ship to Sam Houston 10 days later which worked out great.

He even tried to tie up on us a little bit right before that race at SHRP.

He gets keyed up very easily but when he\'s right, he\'s really right and right now he\'s right.

He trained incredibly this week so we are all systems go for tomorrow.  The weight is a big issue and that tempers my enthusiasm but as I showed with the weight adjusted tops, he\'s less than a point away from the best weight adjusted top in the race and I think there\'s reason to believe two of the other fast ones aren\'t going to run their race(s) so that leaves me most worried about Wilcoxx Inn who is fast and has a good post.  

When there are so many that are so close on the numbers, it\'s going to come down to the trip to seperate the top few and so I am hopeful Rosie can put us in a good spot and save some ground.

Should be a great race

[Bet Twice]

Jim-

I haven\'t looked at the sheets for this race so am curious from a handicapping perspective how far back you look when identifying a horse\'s top.  Is it lifetime top or recent form?

[number5858]

Can you explain what tying up is? I am not familiar with that term.

[gohorse]

http://www.hygain.com.au/Nutrition_Center/What-is-tying-up-in-horses.php

[justwin]

Jim,
Good luck. I\'m playing Howe Great here as he looks like he could be ready to explode as a major turf player. I have your horse in the doubles and pick 3\'s.
George