Last Gunfighter vs Oxbow

[Tavasco]

TGJB

I watched both of their weekend races and I was surprised to see Last Gunfighter\'s race was 1 second slower than Oxbow\'s?

Is this at all puzzling to you?

[TGJB]

Having not done the days yet and seen how fast the tracks were, no.

[Perfect Drift]

106

[TreadHead]

what\'s great about this is, not sure what Beyer ends up giving Orb here, but on BRIS they are already out saying that they gave Orb a BETTER FIGURE for the Preakness than he got for winning the Florida Derby.  Even though there is 10 lengths in reversal between Orb and IMLD in these 2 races.  Because the Beyer fig for Orb\'s Fla Derby is pretty low, pretty good chance his Preakness number is better.  I really don\'t know what else to do with this other than completely laugh out loud.

Really interested to see how the TG figs come back on this one.  Could be the very dictionary definition of how different fig creation methods yield different pictures.

And to tie this to the TwinSpires blog I posted, the author tried to use those BRIS figures to back his point that the KY Derby was an aberration and the Preakness was a \"return to mean\" for Orb instead of a bounce, a good deal worse than his previous 3 races.

[TGJB]

Any chance of getting BRIS to explain how they came up with those Orb figures?

Haven\'t done sat yet but I\'m thinking its pretty unlikely Orb ran better than a neg 2.

Dead rail Fri, don\'t know about Sat yet, second guy reviewing ground.

[TreadHead]

Is it even likely Orb ran better than a 1 from his FOY?  He had better ground than Oxbow on the turns and finished nearly 9 lengths back.

My advice on BRIS is to have your Twitter account ask them directly.  They will be a lot more likely to answer someone like you, I\'m assuming. Something like: Hey @brisnet, can you explain how your preakness figure for Orb came up better than his Florida Derby win?

[Rich Curtis]

BRIS\'s marketing director, Ed DeRosa, posts here as EJXD2, or something very close to that.

BRIS numbers are made by computer, and I think we have a \"Hal\" situation here.

[TreadHead]

I wouldn\'t expect anyone dealing with marketing to enter into a conversation like that, Ed is a very sharp guy and he knows a discussion into the detail that goes into TG vs. BRIS core figure-making would turn out badly for BRIS.  But I guess it doesn\'t hurt to ask.

I use BRIS every time I handicap, the fact-based statistical data they provide in their product is great, and their pace data, while presumably also par-based, I find to be tons more useful than the race shape product here (no offense).  But when it comes to the core speed figure, I certainly don\'t want to be using any product that is assigning a better figure to Orb\'s Preakness than his Florida Derby.  Or, for that matter, any product that is assigning Goldencents as the best 3yr old performance of the spring so far.

[Rich Curtis]

The only conversations Eddie D stays out of are the ones he doesn\'t know are taking place.

[Eight Belles]

Rich Curtis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The only conversations Eddie D stays out of are
> the ones he doesn\'t know are taking place.

Funny line.