Suggestions for 2004...

[JohnTChance]

Dear ThoroGraph:

Amidst the hubbub over your new figure-based trainer profiles,
your explanation page asks for feedback. My initial thinking is
that these can be useful. [My reservations are nitpicks not worth
getting into here.]

In any case, I\'m compelled to offer suggestions as to how to
enhance your sheets. For your consideration, the following
are things I personally would like to see from you:

- 1. WINNING PARS. Include on each sheet the ThoroGraph
WINNING PAR for the class of race each horse is running in
today. For example, if a horse is competing in a MSW route
race for New York-Breds at Saratoga, tell us the WINNING PAR
ThoroGraph determined from a sample taken the prior year/
the prior meet [or more]. What\'s the winning par for 25k f/m
claimers at GP? 50k turf sprinters at Monmouth? The Fred
Hooper Hcap at Crc? The Suburban at Belmont? What
performance figure is it [sorta-kinda] going to take to win
these races? Tell us.

- 2. Include NEW TRAINER CATEGORIES:

- MSW TO MCLM. [Horses dropping into maiden claimers from MSW.]
- DEBUT AT ROUTE. [Horses whose first start s around two turns.]
- IMPORTS [First start in North America.]

- 3. Enhance YOUR DATA FOR FIRST-TIME STARTERS.

Your first-time starter stats [and your second-timer stats too] are terrific.
Specifically, I like the way you break the numbers into sub-categories
of class, age, and the different windows of odds. This is valuable because,
for example, while the DRF stats might deceptively indicate that a trainer
has had two debut winners, ThoroGraph users can know that these came
in maiden claiming races only, and NOT in the tougher MSW races
where that trainer may be 0 for 22. Or else, for example, ThoroGraph
users can know if a trainer wins with first-time starters within a window
of 10-1 or higher odds. This is all great.

But I suggest you go further. In instances when a horse is a first-time
starter, your sheets have a lot of [essentially] void space. Use this space
to INCLUDE AN ACTUAL LISTING of the first-time starters the trainer has
trained. Your database already has this info. Simply re-purpose it. How
many can you list on a page? 10? 20? 30? More? You might art direct
the sheet to include some variation of the example below:

TG... Date............Track...... Class........ Horse/Age.............. Finish....Odds

10... 08Nov02.... 09Aqu... MSW........ LEAD STORY (2)... 1st... 6-1
08... 09Aug01.... 06Sar... MSW......... LAST SONG (2)...... 3rd... 7-1
20... 13Jan00.... 07TP..... Mclm50.... ROUSED (4)............ 8th... 15-1
29... 14Apr99.... 04Kee... Mclm75.... STROKER (3).......... 9th... 23-1
12... 15Nov98... 01CD.... MSW........ DIVINE LOVE (2)....  1st... 4-1

AVG. ITS MSW TG: XX.XX.................. BEST ITS TG: XX.XX

[I can see a few users might be aghast at this suggestion. \"You mean,
you want us to wade through 30 or so running lines of smallish type?\"
My answer: YES!]

With this listing, a user SPECIFICALLY will know how a trainer like
Eoin Harty\'s 2 yr. old first-timers have fared, and we\'ll have a much
better feel for what to expect. If they pretty much all debut at about a
15-ish or higher, then we might not have to throw \"saver\" money on
it to beat a Mandella colt who\'s sure to run in the single digits today.

If we see that trainer George Weaver\'s first-timers do well at huge
odds, that\'s good. But if we specifically see in a listing that some
of these have been eye-popping single-digit ThoroGraphs, that\'s
even more valuable.

If trainer Grant T. Forster is 7 for 7 ITM with his firsters bet down
between 4-1 and 10-1, then list them. I want to see SPECIFICALLY
what TG numbers they ran. Tell us, so we can tangibly relate our
expectations of how they might do, to how we project others in
the field might do.

- 4. Include the AVE. FORWARD MOVE FOR 2ND-TIMERS.

In the sheets of second-time starters, include the average forward
move [in ThoroGraph points] a second-timer will make relative to
its debut. What kind of point jump does a Nick Zito-trained 2 year old
second-timer make at Saratoga? Typically, it\'s a big leap forward.
What should we expect from Todd Pletcher\'s 3 year old second-
timers at Gulfstream? How much do they move forward? Tell us.

Interestingly, most of these suggestions concern maiden races,
events that can be mysterious and unbettable. And for sure, each
of these suggestions can be tweaked in many different directions.
But with sheets that include this enhanced data, ThoroGraph users
will have a unique edge.

Happy New Year.

JohnTChance

[TGJB]

John--

There are a lot of new figure based categories coming, hopefully almost immediately. We are then going to see if we can move that stuff onto the horse\'s sheet by eliminating the jock stats (no one seems to use them), and some of the generic categories of the stat based profiles. We will look at your stuff at that point, and see what we can do. I do remember that you wrote the book on this stuff, literally.

And yes, we encourage input on other uses of the figures to do profiles, especially when they are well thought out, like these.

[colt]

TGJB:

I know that I am relatively new to the TG family, but the Pars that JohnTChance is referring to is the most overrated stats in racing.  As for the Jockey Stats - keep them!  This information is especially vital whenever a winning trainer (i.e. 15 %+) goes to a relatively unknown rider....

Question [I have been wanting to ask this question for a long time] - What time period [last 2 years...etc] does the overall record covers for the Trainer and Jockey Stats?  Also, please explain the PATH stat that is listed for each Jockey.

Also, will you be putting together a TG package for the DRF/NTRA contest in Vegas for the mandatory races?  

Not trying to rain on JTC suggestions, but I figured that I would also touch on the Suggestion topic as well.

Thanks,

Colt

[colt]

TGJB:

I just saw the response to the BASIC QUESTIONS.  

Thanks,

Colt

[Thehoarsehorseplayer]

I\'m not all that familiar with the Thorograph product, but I like how your mind works.  If I were the editor of a racing publication,I certainly want you in the room when we were talking about how to \"improve\" the product.
Like when I read the stats in the Form and I see categories for 1st time starter and 1st time on the grass I always ask myself why isn\'t there a category for first time starters on the grass?
But then again my feeling is that learn the parimutual game at a dog track and you bring a dog track mentality to what should be a more sophisticated endeavor.
Anyway, does the Thorograph offer the following information? (which I have tried to persuade the Form to publish)

Date of gelding.  Or a least note before what race the horse was gelded.

And the specific date when a horse was officially disqualified from purse money.  In the Form you\'ll see a horse  win a 1x, then run 2x,2x 2x 2x for six months before dropping down to a 1x again.  And while the Form will note that he was disqualified from the 1x they don\'t say as of when.  So that the drop to 1x today, might not be the first time he was eligible to drop.  Some of those 2x\'s might have been deliberate darkening races.

Which raises another question.  Does anybody beside me think that when a horse is disqualified from purse money in a conditional race (especially for drug positives) they should forfiet the right to compete for that condition again?

colt wrote:

> TGJB:
>
> I just saw the response to the BASIC QUESTIONS.  
>
> Thanks,
>
> Colt
>
>

All great suggestions.

I am especially interested in PAR times.  

TGJB,

I would be willing to pay for PAR times as a stand alone product for specific tracks.

[TGJB]

John-- we are getting a lot done (some of which you can already see) with new stats of various kinds, and more changes will be apparent soon. One of the next projects will be to tackle the first/second time starter stuff, and I think you\'ll like what we do. This will join the figure based sire, dam and trainer profiles as stuff nobody else has ever done.
Everything you need to win. Maybe more.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Mr. Chance has some good ideas. Reminds me of the good stuff The Racing Times brought to the game. I\'m not sure how class winning pars are relevant. You\'ll find many race winners that win below par. However, with the first time starter figures a trainer had coaxed from previous horses it would have an application with maiden firsters.

CtC

[jbelfior]

I love the idea of class pars; I personally think the strength with that will lie with the turf performance ratings.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I just don\'t see the relevancy of pars unless you are trying to make a figure for an effort. What difference does it make if the par is 6 when you have a stack of T-Graph sheets for the race which indicate the winner will probably win with a 7? The source I\'m using has pars and I can\'t say I ever really look at them. The one time where I think Pars might be of value is say in a 3 year old Maiden 50,000 claimer that has a par of say 10 where you are evaluating first time starters with trainer data that says in that class of race the trainer has got firsters to pop numbers like these:

Horse A -- 15
Horse B -- 11
Horse C -- 8
Horse D -- 12

If its a first time turf starter the same concept would apply, but with proven runners I just don\'t see the application. Then again if you\'re gonna add pages showing the figures a trainer gets a horse to pop in his race after first start or second race on turf there would be an application there as well.

On another note Funny Cide is the Three Year Old Champion and both he and Megadeath are headed for the Donn. I can\'t recall if Megadeath has raced at Gulfstream. Funny has and he seemed to love the footing. I believe it will suit Megadeath well too so it should be a helluva season kickoff. I\'m a Funny fan, but can you imagine beating these two in that race?

CtC



Post Edited (01-27-04 14:06)

[brokerstip]

Chuckles,

You hit it on the head.
You want the pars for those maiden races full of firsters.

One is looking for a reasonable gauge of what # generally wins these types of races.

I previously race animals appear to have no hope of hitting par or better, it enhances the probability that a first time starter will win.

To me, it is that simple.

I asked for a \"par\" on California circuit maidens over a year ago as I am a devout Pick 4 (sometimes Pick 6 and Pick 3 player).
Almost every Pick 4 in Cal has at least one maiden race carded in the last four.

I would find them useful even if others may find them meaningless.

Just my input....

Tip