Hey TGAB-Funny in the Donn

[Silver Charm]

You wrote the following in your Malibu Hdcp analyis:

\"Often first time 4yos run new tops after layoffs, especially under the tutelege of layoff conditioners.\"

Funny isn\'t coming off the layof but one modest prep. He needs to really move up to handle a horse like MDO.

Explain what you meant by this comment without giving away too much on how TG feels about Funny in the Donn (unless you want to).
Obviously those opinions should be available to only the paying customer.(unless you want to).

Just so you know I would never ask you for Freebie.(unless you want to).

[TGAB]

Silver Charm wrote:

> You wrote the following in your Malibu Hdcp analyis:
>
> \"Often first time 4yos run new tops after layoffs, especially
> under the tutelege of layoff conditioners.\"
>
> Funny isn\'t coming off the layof but one modest prep. He
> needs to really move up to handle a horse like MDO.
>
> Explain what you meant by this comment without giving away
> too much on how TG feels about Funny in the Donn (unless you
> want to).
> Obviously those opinions should be available to only the
> paying customer.(unless you want to).
>
> Just so you know I would never ask you for Freebie.(unless
> you want to).

Silver Charm, I\'ve stated this many times; the last time was in Captain Squire\'s comment for The Palos Verdes Handicap ROTW.

It\'s an observation, an observation, I think, borne out by figures, after looking at many, many sheets.

It seems that healthy looking horses, not necessarily stakes animals, but just good, healthy horses in general throw a big number first time out at 4, usually after a rest.

I think, and this is conjecture, that this period, tail end of sophomore campaign early into the 4yo year, is one of dynamic growth for the horse. They\'re really starting to  mature, both physically and mentally, and whatever the talent level, it comes to the fore. Not all horses are precocious, so this seems to be the time that even the slow beginners start to show real signs of growth and development.

Quite often I think, a horse will throw a big effort in this spot and surprise its conditioner. The trainer hadn\'t been training the horse to run a big effort but all of the sudden it happens. Now when this natural growth is complemented by the acumen of a layoff conditioner, the chances for a new top increase even more.          

A lot of trainers like to give their charges a race to gain fitness, which means that you have to give a horse at least two races to see if it can run back to its 3yo talent level. Horses at this age should be able to get back to their 3yo top quickly.

Funny Cide didn\'t get back to its top, but he did run well, 1 point off his top, and one has to think the prep race served its purpose and he\'ll give a good account of himself on Saturday.

>I think, and this is conjecture, that this period, tail end of sophomore campaign early into the 4yo year, is one of dynamic growth for the horse. They\'re really starting to mature, both physically and mentally, and whatever the talent level, it comes to the fore. Not all horses are precocious, so this seems to be the time that even the slow beginners start to show real signs of growth and development.<

I agree completely and then some. Every study I have ever done on the subject - whether it was looking at the figure profiles of thousands of high quality horses, par time studies over several years for developing 3 year olds, etc... all indicate the similar things. The horses often go off as reasonably attractive prices because so much money comes into the pool based on the prior figures as opposed to the prior figures plus possible improvement. Plays like this are good for more than a few bets per year for me and have been highly profitable.

I would add two things.

1. Many horses that return and run significant new tops do not bounce because they are actually simply running to their new normal range as opposed to above it. You jusy have to weigh whether the improvement was in or out line with prior ability.  

2. The evidence I have seen indicates that fillies mature sooner than colts. So you should probably adjust the timetables by a few months. I do not have enough data to say exactly by how much.

[Silver Charm]

Thanks for the handicapping insight from both of you guys. Seems as though you can always get a refresher course or learn new things, which I just did, because you tend to forget things that you used to know but just hadn\'t thought of lately. Again thanks.

TGAB your post, which I read twice, got me to thinking and I believe this to be correct: The freshly starting Four Year Old who runs three, four or five times and who hasn\'t gotten back to the 3YO top, is a horse with problems. One who shouldn\'t be expected to develop. Am I correct, that often times we see a horse with good 3YO form and assume THIS HORSE IS DUE to get back to that 3YO form. If he hasn\'t after several starts he probably won\'t very soon.

[TGAB]

TGAB your post, which I read twice, got me to thinking and I believe this to be correct: The freshly starting Four Year Old who runs three, four or five times and who hasn\'t gotten back to the 3YO top, is a horse with problems. One who shouldn\'t be expected to develop. Am I correct, that often times we see a horse with good 3YO form and assume THIS HORSE IS DUE to get back to that 3YO form. If he hasn\'t after several starts he probably won\'t very soon.


We expect good, healthy 4yos to get back to their 3yo top quickly, within two starts. After two starts, we look at the respective horse in a more critical light, critical in the pejorative sense. Some trainers are not strong 1st or 2nd out and race their charges into condition. But if a horse hasn\'t hit its 3yo level after three or four starts, trainer notwithstanding, you have to think that maybe something is wrong with the horse. We don\'t know. But what we do know is that the horse hasn\'t progressed the way its 3yo line suggested it would, so the immediate 4yo line becomes more important in terms of analyzing its prospective chances. Will a horse develop at some point? It may. We can\'t foreclose that possibility. But for handicapping purposes, the horse in question falls under the Missouri, My Fair Lady demand--SHOW ME.

By the way there\'s a good example in today\'s Gulfstream card. Look in the RDR tomorrow, GP 3rd race and see if you can identify the horse.

In response to classhandicapper, let me say, tops always have the potential to precipitate a bounce next time out, even with quality individuals.  Spacing, perhaps shipping, climate changes or other factors can immediately affect a horse\'s performance in addition to the new top. What happens next becomes really important. The good ones should rebound quickly.



Post Edited (02-05-04 17:23)

[Silver Charm]

Thanks again guys.

I can use the new Figure Related Trainer Stats to help improve my odds on who will bounce move forward or pair up off their prior figures.

Edges are getting harder and harder to come by these days.

This will give me a big edge over anyone who is using anything else.