CC vs Vicar

[jp702006]

First, I want to give props to the staff at thoro-graph. Without the analysis on Curve, I would not have been using him. I was fortunate to hit a $4 trifecta and a $5 exacta wheel because I used Commanding Curve. A couple of weeks ago I called into question the # CC received in the SA derby vs what Vicar ran in the LA derby. Anyone care to comment now? I thought it was not a good representation of how either horse ran in their respective prep and certainly call it into question now. Once again, I sincerely thank you for Curve.

[sekrah]

Vicar was absolutely destroyed in the 2nd furlong.  Chrome had a dream trip.  Not much can be made from it at all.

[TGJB]

Not to spend too much time on this, but if the difference had been 5 lengths maybe there would be something to at least discuss. Horse didn\'t fire, unless you\'re saying the previous number was 10 points wrong.

I\'ll be interested to see ground, Samraat and others.

[jp702006]

Not saying the # was way off in any way. To my novice eyes, I would have thought they would have been reversed with CC getting the 0 and Vicar the 1. All water under the bridge now. Curve ran a great race and made my tickets, thank you for your insight. If Samraat could have ran 2nd or 3rd, I would have been very lucky and had $7 in tri\'s. I look forward to your sheets for the Preakness.

[TreadHead]

The problem is that Curve\'s performance validates the VIT number.  If you change VIT, you have to make Curve look worse too.  VIT had horrible traffic trouble today, can\'t use these results to validate or invalidate anything dealing with VIT or the others that had bad traffic problems.

gonna throw it out there, cant find the trakus chart yet, but possible Curve gets a better figure than CC, or at least the same.

[jp702006]

I would not be shocked if others received a better number than CC for the Derby. He had an amazing trip and made the most of it.

[Michael D.]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> gonna throw it out there, cant find the trakus
> chart yet, but possible Curve gets a better figure
> than CC, or at least the same.


same figure, but CChr is almost always going to get a shorter trip than CCur, so I\'m not sure that matters.

what does matter is wind. 2:03.26 is painfully slow, unless they ran into a pretty strong wind twice.

[TreadHead]

They absolutely did.  Watch replays of the post parades all day if you DVRd it, the wind was blowing right into the faces of the homestretch all day at a pretty good clip.  I think the wind caused many people to cry speed track, when it may have really been fair but the wind helped front runners most of the day.

[jp702006]

I am not saying it was fast by any means, but Smarty ran slower in his derby.

[P-Dub]

jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I would not be shocked if others received a better
> number than CC for the Derby. He had an amazing
> trip and made the most of it.


Which horse(s) ran a better figure today?? Chrome blitzed this field, amazing trip or not. A belated closing kick by Commanding Curve after Chrome was geared down, I can\'t believe anyone would think Chrome didn\'t run the best figure in the race.

[jimbo66]

Agreed.  A silly post

Chrome destroyed this field.  Second easiest win in the last 15 years.  Behind Barbaro only IMO.  Easier than smarty\'s win.

Now, he did catch an unusual surface for Churchill.  It was a speed favoring, tit track, like he enjoys.  But he was a ton the best.  

Social inclusion off the huge fig, and the filly, off a series of big figs, would give him a run in the Preakness.  

Not sure chrome would appreciate the 1.5 mile Belmont.  But he has to get there.

[Michael D.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jp702006 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I would not be shocked if others received a
> better
> > number than CC for the Derby. He had an amazing
> > trip and made the most of it.
>
>
> Which horse(s) ran a better figure today?? Chrome
> blitzed this field, amazing trip or not. A belated
> closing kick by Commanding Curve after Chrome was
> geared down, I can\'t believe anyone would think
> Chrome didn\'t run the best figure in the race.


Paul,

only because I like you -

CChr won by 1 1/4 and ran a length shorter than CCur. he ran a 1/4 of a length faster.

[alang]

final time slowest in 40 years for a Derby on a fast track.

[jp702006]

I have no idea who ran a faster figure. If I had to venture a guess I would say Curve and possibly Danza. I am not implying CC doesn\'t deserve the best fig, only that I would not be surprised if another horse received a better number. I made great bank wheeling CC today because I thought he was a fast horse. I am not suggesting he isn\'t so cool your jets.

[jerry]

Mike Welsh said VIT had trained poorly up to the race.