Deciding Factors Prior To Derby Wagers

[Rick B.]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick B.,
> The point I was trying to make when I started the
> topic was what factors the guys use to arrive at
> the decision to put their money down.

> I don\'t claim to be an intellectual like some
> posters, I\'m just go with what has worked for me
> in the past. Have a good one.

Fair enough, and whatever is working for you, great.
Hope when you read this later you have money
spilling out of all of your pockets.

I just find it funny sometimes when folks bring so
many factors into the equation, which I believe (in
most cases) just gives you even more opportunities
to make a mistake. Stick to one or two things that
work, and ALWAYS make sure the value is there.

I admit to being far more casual about the Derby than I
used to be; thanks to Invisible Ink (2001 Derby
runner-up at 55-1), I\'m ahead on this race for life.

Being more casual about the Derby allowed me to be
swayed by TG on Commanding Curve (I was neutral on him,
would have left him off), and I did OK on the race even
though my key horse (Chitu) stunk it up.

[TGJB]

Well, if you bet Chitu you weren\'t just betting the fastest horse.

I\'m the guy who makes the figures, and my Derby analysis alone indicates how many other things I look at-- spacing, pedigree, patterns, physicals (unfortunately in this case). And there are a myriad of other things I\'ve brought up in ROTW-- trainer patterns, trainer intent, etc.

When the lawyer for the other side cross examined me during the trial for the Rachel thing he asked me, all you really look at is how fast they are, right? Trying to minimize my input in the buy. I had a good time with that, went on for quite a while.

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well, if you bet Chitu you weren\'t just betting
> the fastest horse.

Correct.

I rarely make the fastest horse my key horse...
hardly ever any value in it. If Chitu just hits the
ticket, anywhere, I make $15 - $20K on the race.

As tight as the CD strip was last Saturday, and with
Baffert horses running well in the earlier races...man,
I was feeling like a genius with that selection.

Until the 1/8th pole...

[pres711]

if you watched the louisiana derby and the way CC was wacked out of the gate and still hit the Board and read the TG\'s  he was an obvious long shot include.  Other facors may also have helped but those two sealed the deal for me.

[smalltimer]

Rick B.,
Thank you for the comments.  Actually I went to a track meet for my grandson and have yet to place a wager at that venue.
Like yourself with your outstanding profit on Invisible Ink, I was able to score a huge profit by playing Giacomo on top in the \'05 Derby.  So you and I are both members of the \"ahead of the Derby for life\" club.
There is always something to be learned by having good exchanges on this board. I include you among that group.
I enjoyed a nice Derby this year, next year I may get my rear-end handed to me.
Good luck guy!

[vagrant]

Bet any way you want, bro. Consult as few or as many experts as you please. I shared my way.

[Wrongly]

Add great pattern and good works!  I\'m a bit ashamed I didn\'t hit it harder but still thought Chrome would have trip issues.  No such luck.  Hoping he cruises next weekend so I can take out a 2nd mortgage against Chrome in the Belmont!