MJ-- First of all yeah, not only for handicapping races using Jake\'s Derby figures, but for making figures using them. People who don\'t make figures don\'t understand it but this truly is an area of garbage in, garbage out. They\'re screwed.
As I mentioned here before, I actually gave some thought to making the race one point better, not worse. If it had been at 1 1/8th and less horses had trouble I might well have, and it would have resulted in a very high percentage of tops for a Derby. I think it\'s about 80-90% that it\'s right where it is.
One more minor point-- I happened to catch a replay of the race today on NYRA, and they were focusing on Borel\'s ride on ROC. Usually we don\'t pay attention to anything that happens on straightaways re ground loss because if you look at the math it\'s insignificant, but that left turn he made to get to the rail was so severe you actually could credit the horse with a little better figure. As a practical matter it doesn\'t really affect the way you handicap him going forward regardless.
