Illinois Derby

[MO]

Haven\'t cashed a ticket in just 3 trips to the track this year, so I\'m overdue.

Not much speed here, so I\'ll take White Mountain to wire them. Has a win at 9f and regular jock comes along. His \"worst\" race is better than most in here and the top figure horses might bounce with the ship.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

MO it may be that you have insight into the IL Derby that I don\'t, but from what I can see White Mountain is not a committed front runner. He\'s breaking from outside and hes got Pollard\'s Vision, Suave and Song of the Sword..who all have some speed inside of him. He\'s gonna have to really juice it or get caught wide. He did toss a :47 half at them last and thats about as fast as he\'s paced goin two turns.  I like the fact he likes to win and he fought in that Battaglia. He did have to go wide there and its obvious that Silver Minister didn\'t fire last and Little Matth is not a half bad horse. I\'m just not sure about your pace analysis. It could happen. His connections may decide to send him. If they are committed to the front he probably has enough speed to take the lead. I guess the question is at what cost. Maybe on TGraphs hes super competitive with the wide trips factored. He\'s gonna have to avoid one Saturday. I think he\'s giving five pounds each to the three inside as well. He is a Michael Gil horse. I\'ll try and post again pre race I\'m still looking at this one.

[ronwar]

Pollard\'s Vision looks pretty tough in here.  I think he made a premature move last out into a swift pace that hampered his chances.  If he stays around 4-1, I think thats generous.  I\'ll try to get him home with Chrome Soldier and Farnum Alley.

Good Luck

[MO]

CTC - Pollard and Suave appear to be pace pressers to me. White Mountain has no choice but to send, lest he get parked. I do not have pace figures in front of me, but it appears that he has the speed (and stamina) to wire these. I find it odd that Johnny V stays in Lexington to ride a longshot mare in a 5 horse race, rather than stay with a possible Derby mount. That indicates to me a lack of confidence in the horse. The paired 2\'s would win IF the horse doesn\'t bounce. When Pollard ran a 4 last year it took a long time for him to recover. 4-1 would be a square price and a worthwhile saver. But I\'m not interested in breaking even. My ROI on Chicago racing is ugly, but I\'m due. If I don\'t fall asleep, maybe I\'ll go bet the race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

MO I\'ll defer to you on this one. My hunch is Suave is not bad horse, but I have to run out.

[MO]

Did not get out to make a bet. Hire the handicapped (AC), they\'re fun to watch!
No attempt whatsoever to go for the lead, and like a speed horse always does when Not On The Lead, he spit the bit. (Actually looked like sh## on the backstretch - sick???)Anyway, I\'d have lost even with a saver, so maybe my 5th visit to the track will be a winning one. I\'m overdue....LOL