SA Carryover Crazy

[phil23]

Pic 5 general thoughts - With such a large carryover likely (2M-3M) is this a time to use more of the faves, even if they are being bet? Not entirely certain how to approach this as there do not appear to be any huge overlays based on the morning lines vs who the fast one\'s are.


Race 1 - No Contingency is the only one in here not in for a claim (trainer waiver so maybe this mean trainer intent?). If he can repeat his last from much earlier this year he\'s right there with the other two fast ones who both bounced in their last. His 2nd and 3rd last works were good but his last one, in addition to be very slow (102 of 135) also was 2 weeks ago with none since. Maybe they missed it but that does seem cause for concern. Seems like the ML odds mirror the figs here so not sure how deep to go.

Race 2 - The two fast ones in here both look like they could bounce although War Destiny has both a \"tu\" and an \"op\" notification in his fig so perhaps a clean trip helps make up for whatever synth to dirt (War front\'s a pt slower on it) that he might have. Mildly interested in the unlaced Uptown Rhytm. He\'s by a fast, dirt sire and it\'s not like, if the two faves don\'t run, there are any killers in here.

Race 3 - All Star Bub goes first out for Dorf as a private purchase. I like him to move fwd another couple of points which puts him into range with the fastest guy in here. Seems like a two horse race.

Race 4 - 3 have run much faster than the rest with Metaboss, of the three, having by far the best pattern. If Harmonic drew in and wasn\'t marooned (though he does have the length of the stretch to move over) could see him in it as well (plus he just worked a bullet).

Race 5 - This seems like a race where almost everyone will single Kill Shot. He certainly looks good on the figs. I guess he could bounce but his works have been fine coming in. His most recent fig fits right with his others so not like it has to be enervating even with the light racing. I do like Memphis to bounce though. He\'s the other fast one but check out his works. They are disastrous. 57/65, 44/44, 58/62 since his last race. Whereas his 3 works prior to that were much more middle of the road. So if we are tossing him feels like it would be wrong to toss Kill Shot as well.

Truthfully, the sequence does seem like it could be a little chalky. So that makes me wonder how deep to go, even with the huge carry.

[richiebee]

Phil:

Outstanding analysis. A little SA gun shy after some MRWs were blown out of the
water by $176 winner in race 9 yesterday.

[shanahan]

thanks for the handicapping - thought it was becoming a lost art on this board!

Agree with leg 1, singling the 7.

In leg two, I\'m  adding Callaghan\'s runner - bullet, gd sire, wide last.

the 3rd race, I\'m adding to your single with Baffert/Garcia 3rd out (he has 2 in here) & also the Hollendorfer (part owner) #5 - been off dirt last 3.

Race 4 - yeah, this\'d be tough not to single the 7.  Should he scr, I\'ll go wide with the 3 (gd works, improved first 2 out), 4 (improved going D>Syn), 6 (Proctor charge was absolutely flying late when he got out in last - see line), and the 12 (probably have trouble again, but Gaines pretty gd 2nd out).  Hell, I may go with all these anyway.

Final Leg - Cal breds - The 1 jumped up when in restricted company, the 3 was running over his head, and the is rested, bullets, gd pilot.  I agree the 6,7 are just too iffy, but ignore MSmith at your own peril I guess.

[bellsbendboy]

Nice work Phil, would chime in that No Contingency is running \"claim free\" because of CHRB 1634.  Thinking this is a prep off the layoff as he has been working solo and has never beaten this type.  WHEN WE MET and \"HAD FUN are this good,  sharp and like to win.

LOGANS MOON need only repeat his last to crush these finishing a solid second to a Baffert freak... a Storm Cat no less off a multiyear layoff.

\"OLIVIA\" looks best in a tough heat, \"Mandate\" and \"ALLSTAR could also score here.

META BOSS is best on paper, by a lot, but Pretentius had no chance wide, with a big rail and has worked well.  AIR NASHOBA while up in class has a license with a stout pedigree.

HE\"S ON HIS TOES could not have a greener pedigree yet has already won on dirt; KILL SHOT should be on everyones ticket and as far as MEMPHIS do not let his works derail you he switched to a barn who is \"easy\" in the am and is sharp enough to get the money here.  bbb