Thoughts on the weekend

[smalltimer]

My son calls me the \"slots whisperer.\"  If people understood the progression pays it would save them lots of dough.

[ajkreider]

I will have to take another look at his starts, but according to the charts, he broke on top in two of his last three.  It\'s also worth asking who else in the prospective field has proven comfortable on the lead.

But as you say, it\'s still early, and the draw will have a lot to say about it anyway.  Cheers.

[richiebee]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My son calls me the \"slots whisperer.\"  If people
> understood the progression pays it would save them
> lots of dough.


Smalltimer:

Are \"progression pays\" at the slots something like \"condition moves\" on Ragozin?

Not to discredit the venerable Vito, but his contention that patterns are never
discussed on the TG board or the TG ROTW is not accurate.

[vp612]

I will give you a perfect example why our theories are so different.In his analysis of Kobe on saturday he says horses that come back off a layoff and run a new top are a bet against.When a 4 year old comes back and runs a pair up or a number 1/4 to 1-1/4 points better than his top he is as live as anything you would want to play.You want 4-6 weeks coming in and a decent 3 yr old line.He said the horse reacted to every new top he ran ,not on my numbers.Forget the numbers we don\'t even agree on what a good line is.

[smalltimer]

Richiebee,

I didn\'t pay much attention to the condition move discussion on the board.  We\'ll just say I tend to sit down at machines that look to be setting on a new top.

[richiebee]

Vito:

It is all good. Not only might a person using Ragozin view a horse\'s chances
differently than a person using TG, I am sure that there are many instances
where two people looking at Rag or TG figures might reach a different
conclusion; the data is always subject to interpretation, and the result is
more value than if everyone\'s interpretation of the data was uniform.

With regards to Kobe, I did not like the uncertainty attached to his shipping
to a track he had never run at and taking a short price; I ended up taking
another short priced horse who had already run a good race at Kee. I know
your response is that you are focused on the number, on the patterns, and
disregard any other ancillary considerations. You are not the only one on
either side of the aisle who takes this approach.

As to Unrivaled, there has to be some backstory as to why Winstar offered a
runner by their hot young sire for 30K; I think it is almost inevitable that
we will read next that trainer Marya Montoya (daughter of the late
Keystone/Philly Park training legend \"Goose\" Heimer) will be replaced.

Might I suggest \"Move Up\" Michelle Nevin?

[vp612]

Agreed the Kobe price was no bargain.As far as Nevin goes now you are talking.

[boston]

I am guessing 1.5 for Dortmund, and a 0.5 for Carpe Diem.  The Wood is very tough to figure.

[boston]

In the Wood either the first two ran Very fast and the others ran normal, or the first two ran average and the rest bounced.

[aceriley]

From what I\'ve seen none of these horses is as good as Mubtaahij he won for fun in the UAE Derby, not just because I have a nice bet on him at 90-1 in the future book I love the breeding for distance and the fact he likes dirt, the two preps at 1 3/16 miles on the new (slow) surface at Meydon with a great trainer deKock at the controls.

[ajkreider]

Almost two seconds quicker than the Gazelle winner, who romped despite spotting her foes tons of weight.

They went fast.

[ajkreider]

He did win for fun, and wish I had that future bet, but he won\'t be sprinting home off a 26 second opening quarter in the Derby if he wants the roses.  He won\'t have that cherry stalking position at Churchill at the UAE pace.

[Tavasco]

But he will have first time Lasix, won\'t he?

C/B 2-3 points or none or more.