Money List and Eddington

[holybull95]

MichaelD, there are committees and there are committees.  And some with International flavor and input.  You are right in that I can\'t remember many arguments about a quality horse not getting into a BC race because of other, less \"qualified\" horses ahead of him (or her).  But not many horses are BC entered if they are not in that class.

FWIW I just saw ESPN\'s Wire to Wire and watched as Minister Eric lumber home in another allowance at Keeneland, drifting in and changing to the wrong lead in the final sixteenth.  The race was won in 144 and 2 fifths with the last 3 sixteenths in 33 and 2.  Yet he has won a shade under $438,000 in his career without running in a Stakes, never mind a graded Stakes, this year.  Good luck to Mr. Mandella but he won\'t be on my ticket.....

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m gonna be very careful in factoring Minister Eric\'s last race at Keeneland until I\'m comfortable with the various figures from the races there. I keep seeing Millineum Wind and Brancusi in my mind\'s eye. Then again theres Charismatic and Proud Citizen.

The use of committees to determine who gets into the Kentucky Derby is a prospect rife with injustice. It\'s hard to see how anyone can reject the graded stakes criterion in conjunction with an \"also eligible\" list, in case an unscrupulous trainer enters a horse he never intends to run.

I like Mark Henning. I think the graded earnings snuck up on him and its too bad because I like Eddington too. But theres a lot of good horses this year and it gets real subjective to say Hennig\'s gets in because another with more graded stakes earnings isn\'t as good. He\'s finished no better than 3rd in Stakes correct?

Eddington keeps crossing my mind so I\'ll share one more thought that guys like pgsheets and bitplayer have already said I believe. The horse has some speed. I saw it in the Gotham when he had some gate problems and once he shuffled out of them he essentially ran right on the fractions. He was right there in the Wood as well. Running with Value Plus and Sinister G. (The latter of which I think is much quicker than people realize) Cuba was there also and Master David ran back a couple lengths along the rail.  Eddington went wide and struggled to change leads. But at the end he was all that was really left from the pace. Honorable mention to Master David. He also looked like another eighth was gonna make the thing look in doubt. I don\'t know that for sure. But what I\'m saying is if he has lacked a big late kick, he hasn\'t been in position to deliver one. If they can rate that horse five lengths off the pace and get him to change leads smoothly in the stretch I think he could be a very good horse.

CtC



Post Edited (04-20-04 16:19)

[Michael D.]

t\'bred times poll has 75% voting to keep the rules as they are. i admit i am in the minority here. we have beat this one to death............................ next subject:  kentucy oaks field looking awful strong. bailey back on ME. brilliant race horse, but some have concerns about her ability to get 9f at CD? thoughts? velazquez back on ashado. ready for a bounce? ap adventure has run poorly a few times this year. ready to improve going 9f?



Post Edited (04-20-04 16:28)

[jbelfior]

CtC---

Interesting point on MASTER DAVID. His race is very impressive considering his prior start was February 8th.

If TAPIT and EDDINGTON are serious contenders, what of MD who has a hell of a shot to move forward considering it\'s FRANKEL. Besides, IMO , SOLIS is one of the best mile and a quarter riders in the country.

PS: Is there anyone besides myself that are not buying into these Keenland BRIS and Beyer #\'s that I\'ve been seeing?? They\'re putting out pace and final numbers for the Blue Grass and Lexington as if SPECTACULAR BID and HANSEL were in them.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[holybull95]

If anyone can find value in the Oaks, other than the obvious, the Oaks/Derby double would be a decent play.  Victory USA, La Reina?  Thoughts?

[jbelfior]

Holybull95--

I also was considering LA REINA, but I\'m not sure she\'s going. I\'m leaning towards CLASS ABOVE at this point.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[holybull95]

Class Above, interesting.  Anyone remember Halfbridled?  Any chance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tapit beat me in the Wood, but if hadn\'t of Master David and Eddington would have...lol

But how can you sell Frankel short right now? Master was coming off a layoff and a slight illness. Frankel told the world pre race he wasn\'t cranked. Frankel could certainly win this thing on May 1st. He\'s got the edge right now guys like Baffert and Lukas have at times had. I say that off the cuff, I don\'t know who I\'m gonna bet yet, but I\'ll be scared of Frankel if I don\'t bet him. I need to look closely at M.D. pedigree...heck i\'ll do it now:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=horse&search_bar=horse&h=MASTER%20DAVID2&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n&pedloggedin=0

What stands out to me is the dam \"Nadra\". She couldn\'t run a lick, but shes the product of a champion and near champion. Her dam is Bint Pasha Champion 3 yr old in France. She won Group I at 12 marks twice. (I believe the Yorkshire Oaks is 2400 meters=1.5 miles) Sadler Wells (twice second at 1.5 miles) has a slew of 12 mark performers. To me this horse looks bred to the plan of American Speed on Top of European Distance ability. Granted the European form is somewhat \"nouveau\". It was only European for a generation and was American before that. He\'s line bred somewhat to Northern Dancer. Frankel\'s other good one is also a grandson of Sadlers Wells.

Direct tail female is somewhat weak but for Bint Pasha. But you have Sir Gaylord and Graustark supporting it.

This is scary horse for 10 marks and maybe 12. Anyone dismissing him out of hand might be making a mistake.

[Michael D.]

i liked la reina for a while, but i have kind of given up on her. pedigree says 9f should suit well, but the more i watch her run, the more i think she will be a better miler/back running sprinter. velazquez dumped her for ashado, and i don\'t think shug is even pointing towards the race anymore. halfbridled ..... hmm, that is a tough one. right now i\'m feeling that you can\'t single her on top at low odds, but with mandella in the corner, how do you leave her out?

[Michael D.]

my initial feeling is that master david is capable of running a decent 10f, and maybe even 12f as you say. right now, however, i don\'t think the horse is is quite fast enough to beat very good horses going either distance. i have to study this horse a bit further though........