Upstart

[T Severini]

I\'m sure most noted it, but Upstart was having a battle with Materiality\'s right rear quarter for a good piece of the homestretch.  Very awkward bit of running and it certainly impeded him. Clear run there and he might win the race, but Materiality certainly was a gamer. Velasquez appeared to go with the 1.6 million horse, but not yet convinced he choose correctly.

Two very good horses in this opinion, whether they will be good on Saturday clearly the issue.

[T Severini]

justwin Wrote:
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> Agreed, he is my key. Love the pattern... I\'m not as sold on Firing
> Line as others. Even if he goes forward he will
> not win. I can\'t see a big forward move with his
> pedigree. Gotta toss some of these.

For me, Firing Line is an intriguing entry.

He lost two close ones to Dortmund, granted at 8.5 furlongs, but he was dead game. That Sunland Park race looks Hot, though can\'t see a contender in the \"company line\". Still, will never forget Mine that Bird and Sunland\'s elevation conditioning consideration.

Can\'t concede that he isn\'t bred well enough either. This horse was a quarter million yearling on at first blush non descript breeding. He\'s apparently well put together. Will have to evaluate that in the next couple days. But back to breeding his Dam was second in a Grade I 9 furlong heat and is a half sister to a Dwyer winner and Peter Pan Place horse.

This one is intriguing. Now he\'s battled with Dortmund before and if he does it again that\'s gonna be difficult. But if one could foresee this horse just off, my goodness it could be outstanding.

[what about bob]

Can\'t use Upstart on top in this race and probably not at all.  I think he backed up slightly in his last and reacted to a tough race by getting sick.  Can\'t see him getting the distance and wouldn\'t be surprised to see him throw a huge X in the Derby.

[HP]

Here\'s my knock on Upstart.  Take a look at the archives.  In quite a few cases that HUGE number early in 3yo campaign (Jan/Feb) is a big negative.  No question about his value, but take a peek and see what you think.

[ajkreider]

It is a negative, because they usually don\'t have time to get back to.  But Upstart did.

[HP]

He can back up a bit and still win with a good trip.  I\'ll Have Another ran big early but he had a big gap to his last prep.  CChrome was really the exception to this.  Kept firing.  Others don\'t.  At this ML he\'s a must use but that\'s the possible chink I see in the armor.

[MInfurna]

When ALL sheet players focus on one horse, especially at 15-1, they never win. Sure he can win, but it rarely ever happens.