TAKE A GUESS?????

[freehouse2324]

It may be that the THOROGRAPH is the best way to tell the contenders from the pretenders,but when it comes down to telling who is going to go forward or backwards were all taking a shot in the dark.Know matter the data you have in front of you the bottom line is their is to much quessing in the end.

[OPM]

That\'s why you need to use the odds.  If your horse needs 2 pt top to be competitive and has a good line, you better get 10-1 or more on him.  A 4pt top and you need 20-1 or more.  There are a lot of guessing going on but the odds will help you stay sane!!! or not lose your pants.

[derby1592]

Freehouse,

You are definitely right. Anybody who says they are certain that a horse is going to bounce or jump is fooling himself. However, you can infer a bias in one direction or the other. Certain lines or trainers are more or less likely to bounce or jump than others and faster horses usually outrun slower horses. It all comes down to developing a feel for the percentages based on good information and letting the odds determine your play.

It\'s definitely not a game for the faint of heart.

\"Nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.\" Nicholas Taleb

Chris

[SoCalMan2]

derby1592 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Freehouse,
>
> You are definitely right. Anybody who says they
> are certain that a horse is going to bounce or
> jump is fooling himself. However, you can infer a
> bias in one direction or the other. Certain lines
> or trainers are more or less likely to bounce or
> jump than others and faster horses usually outrun
> slower horses. It all comes down to developing a
> feel for the percentages based on good information
> and letting the odds determine your play.
>
> It\'s definitely not a game for the faint of heart.
>
> \"Nobody accepts randomness in his own success,
> only his failure.\" Nicholas Taleb
>
> Chris


Given recent discussion, I thought it might be worthwhile to resurrect this 12 year old thread.  Taleb has been discussed on this board before.