Pass

[Old Mr. Boston]

Based on relative values, the Preakness is looking more and more like a pass to me. I\'ll play some horizontals and hope to be alive to one or two in the Preakness.

[miff]

Horizontals the best spot to gamble Preakness as AP will be way overweight, beat AP and payoffs will be much higher than anticipated.

[TGJB]

Miff-- that post gave me flashbacks. I took that exact position against Smarty in the pick 4 in the Preakness, was live multiple times with 4-5 horses with it paying 10k or more, saw the one with him was paying I think 4k and started kicking myself.

But as a general idea I agree.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Miff-- that post gave me flashbacks. I took that
> exact position against Smarty in the pick 4 in the
> Preakness, was live multiple times with 4-5 horses
> with it paying 10k or more, saw the one with him
> was paying I think 4k and started kicking myself.
>
> But as a general idea I agree.


JB,

I had that same P4.  I think a horse named Mr O\'Brien paid something like $21 in that turf stakes race. Another race had a low priced horse (a Baffert?) run out to a very logical $9 horse. Mr O\'Brien was the overlay of the day.

Tried to talk my buddies onto that horse, nobody liked him. Showed them your stuff. They thought he wasn\'t as \"classy\" as the others.  I was the only guy at our table with a live ticket. I was hoping for someone to beat Smarty as those payouts were huge, but watching Smarty roll wasn\'t bad either. We probably played the same 4/5 horses to beat him, I had around 5 horses live into the Preakness.  I think Smarty paid $1500 for a .50 P4, something like that.

Wow, that was 11 years ago??

[jp702006]

The pick 5 with I\'ll Have Another paid around $1300 for 50 cents. There could be value on Saturday even if AP wins.