Easy Goer

[FrankD.]

Down to 4 Motion tweeting Donworth is out had a fever this morning.

[ringato3]

Thanks for the info Frank.

Already spent WAY too long whether I could single Donworth in the pick 5 there or whether I would use another with him.

He feels like a \"sucker\" horse (note to Joe B.).  Been bet twice since the troubled trip 1st race, way overbet in both cases (including by this poster), and has \"excuses\" and \"good figures\" in both losing races.

Anyway, headache resolved.

Plenty of other horses to give headaches tomorrow.  Like Untapable.  AT her best crushes these.  Why does she feel like Rachel \"the year after\".

Rob

[TGJB]

Let me make a point about this since it\'s now academic. Why stretch to find additional horses when a pick 4 starts the next race? If there was value in tossing favorites and spreading out that would be different. But in this situation why not play the one you like, play less, and if you bust start over? That\'s what I was going to do.

[ringato3]

TGJB,

Won\'t say I disagree, but have thought about this particular issue alot.

Two things:

1.  Takeout is 50% greater on a pick 4 than the pick 5.

2.  A longshot or a huge favorite losing blows up a sequence to a  greater degree, the longer the sequence.  (sounds like an \"assertion\", but I have an impression built over years of watching payoffs that lead me to believe that.

So, for example, tomorrow I am inclined to toss untapable in the pick 5.  I was debating \"standing\" with Graham Motion\'s horse, or going 60/40 Motion/Pletcher.  Figuring that my MAIN opinion in the pick 5 was that Untapable is having a \"Rachel the year after\" type of year and at 2-5 on the ML, I wanted to be alive.

I hadn\'t made up my mind, because I could have done what you said and lost with Donworth and played the same ticket in the pick-4.  But it seems to me that because of smaller players and the effect of additional races, a 2-5 shot is singled in more pick-5 tickets than pick-4 tickets.

Cluttering the board, but I think betting strategy is a huge topic and maybe what us players screw up most...

Rob

[TGJB]

I\'m fine with posts like that. I talk about that stuff at Saratoga seminars. Ask Frank.