Materiality and Upstart

[bellsbendboy]

Boscar, appreciate your posts over the last eight or so years.  Stretching out needs more definition. A 2yo going from 5 panels to say six and a half is certainly up against it. In a more common sense going from one turn to two and the conditioner is nil for 25; almost certainly a toss all other things equal.  First time two turns is seldom a good play.

Point two, 3 for 56 first turf I would find irrelevant if the horse was bred for it, providing other germane capping factors were in order.

Nevertheless you appear to understand my point, many new players are betting statistics and such rather than the animal himself.

bbb

[ringato3]

BBB,

I don\'t feel singled out.   Quite the contrary.   I am VERY comfortable with my understanding of the many facets of handicapping this game.  Very complex and multi-dimensional game.   Which is the point u seem to be missing.   Anybody that makes very strong assertions and definitive statements about this game \"doesn\'t get it\".   Data always worth being analyzed and considered.   Binary, black and white statements, foolish.

As for your revisionist statement about Bayern, go back and read your post and my bone of contention.   U made no statement about his conditioning or fitness, which would have been worth considering.   U said he isn\'t a one turn horse.  A silly statement given his huge woody Stephens run in a sprint.   Seeing Bayern come back and run relatively poorly again at Delmar (around 2 turns), doesn\'t support your position at all.

I haven\'t met u, yet i am very comfortable that I have u slotted correctly.  Another guy who isn\'t wrong and when he is, it is the rest of us that don\'t get it.  I knew that last year when I first started looking at this board.   If memory serves correct u railed endlessly about Chrome not being any good, over rated, etc,etc.   he romps in the derby and your first post was a self congratulatory one about how much money u made betting the horse who came second underneath the horse u hated.   Even if true (unlikely), any normal person would have felt like a fool posting that.  Not u.   U had to post that u were right.  

Good luck.  U will need it,

Done responding.

Rob

[Boscar Obarra]

You know, even though I kept ridiculously detailed records back in the day, and knew players that honed in on what\'s now widely known as \'trainer stats\' , my focus was always horse centric.

 I think that was a mistake then and now. While the horse is still paramount, you really need to know if there\'s some chink in the armor of the conditioner, that might be a hindrance.

 There\'s not much difference between winning and running second or third with a well placed/suited horse, and if the trainer has show ineptitude under these conditions in the past, you\'re probably in trouble. Sure , anything can win, at any time. (see Mott FTS at SAR this year), but betting into a negative stat is a hard way to make an easy living.

[Coronado98]

My two cents on Upstart is this; his Derby was a toss, his return effort in the Haskell was not terrible, and maybe he would be better off going to the King\'s Bishop than the Travers where he may have distance limitations.  It seems like this horse goes up to 8.5 furlongs and that\'s it.

[Chas04]

Well I can\'t deny a lot of my comments are silly....especially winning by 12-15 vs serious horse flesh. But I am happy to see that your done insisting AP is a \"value bet against\", I respect your opinion on Upstart and have been playing him since I saw him in person last year. The huge figs early is an easy one. Its all out the window anyway because he wants no part of AP in the Travers. I just wish there was something more creative that I could find with AP now. Auto single in the Pick 6 of course...but then the pick 4 is a pick 3 with him and the pick 3 is a pick 2.

[pizzalove]

Dammit I wanted to bring up the Read the Footnotes comparison.  Good call.

[CIRCLEOFROSES]

My take is this.I would include daredevil as well.Those huge efforts as a 2 year old with no foundation to support those efforts.Have lead to the Retirement Of Materiality and Carpe Diem.Both ran huge figs as a 2 year old early 3 year old in the case of Materiality.The lack of progression thru conditions or building up those points to make the derby is cutting the racing careers short.Sad but true