Thought that I had gone far enough with tenets but decided to do some analysis and while the sample is too small, I did uncover an interesting tendency.
I dumped the small barn and turf rail tenets mostly because of the time required to do accurate research and used only the first blinkers, drawing inside. Again a tenet is between opinion and fact though they are much closer to the latter. By definition, (Websters), a belief, principle or doctrine generally believed to be true.
99% of my plays are in California and it was easiest for me to use the current Delmar meeting as a data base. My small study used only the first 18 days of the meet and I decided to chuck anything European, eliminate firsters equipped with blinkers and used only the past performances on the page.
Two noticeable disclaimers; 1) if a horse used blinkers then ran twelve races without them... then added them, they were counted as first time blinkers, and 2) if a horse scratched then was reentered it was regrettably counted twice.
I used all horses in posts 1,2 and 3 getting first hood, post four if there was ten or more entrants and post five if twelve or more.
In all 171 horses were evaluated (first blinkers) and a remarkable at least to me, was there were 16 winners or roughly nine percent! It was more than double the percentage I would have expected.
Of the sixteen; Ellis had a pair of short priced winners, Claiborne had a homer ($4.60), Avila claimed one off Stein, and four dropped precipitously. What was eye opening 8 were coming off significant layoffs with the average a bit over 120 days! Learn something everyday!!
I would not have posted my tenets if I did not strongly feel they were sound handicapping angles and apologize my study did not provide the results I expected. On the other hand the sample was small and the Delmar meet due to the compression and simplicity of the condition book is the most class conscious in the world.
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